For a whole week now, Jordan has been shaken by nonstop waves of protests against the draft law on reforming tax reform, for which the IMF lobbied for adoption. This reform calls for significant growth in the income tax. As a result, from June 1 prices in Jordan have already risen 5.5% for natural gas, 16.4% for gasoline, and 19% for electricity. According to data of Jordan’s Ministry of Finance, at the end of 2017 the national debt stood at 38.5 billion dollars or 95.3% of GDP. By 2021, the IMF’s proposed measures should reduce Jordan’s national debt to 77% of gross domestic product.
The resignation of Jordan’s Prime Minister Hani Al-Mulki, and appointment of Omar al-Razzaz, who must form a new government, has not helped stem the growing wave of protests. Jordanians feel that they are in dire need of modern electoral legislation. That must be formulated with the participation of all the country’s political forces.
Jordanians understand that the majority of their problems arise from politicians. Acute attention is devoted to reformation of the system, yet Jordan, like other Arab kingdoms, is an absolute monarchy. The king holds the reins of power, and exercises authority, which covers all institutions of government. He also has the ability to dissolve the elected legislative branch. “Color revolutions” in Tunisia and Egypt have already swept aside such authoritarian rulers, who did not resolve socioeconomic problems of their own people. Has Jordan’s time come? There is a real, possible variant for development of events, where Palestinians, who comprise up to 70% of the country’s population, would take power. This would benefit Syria, Russia, and Iran. Americans do not want this, but they don’t have additional money for Jordan. Saudi Arabia doesn’t have any either.
Ironically, the country must seek new paths to survival and new alliances in the camp of former enemies. This is illustrated by the recent meeting of Jordan’s King Abdallah II bin Al-Hussein Al-Hashimi with the Iranian leader Hassan Rouhani, and also the increasing frequency of contacts with Russia. And Jordan does not intend to delay this process. Indeed the Hashemite monarchy does not wish to find itself in the role of a “junior partner” without a voice. The tension in relations with old allies was on clear display by an occurrence during the April summit of the League of Arab States, when Abdullah refused to shake hands with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammad bin Salman. So, King Abdullah may now fully normalize relations with Assad’s Syria, Iran, and find a new patron, such as Turkey for instance.
It is becoming clear, that the current government cannot pursue the previous course under the new situation, while maintaining internal security. The country has found itself alone facing regional and international pressure, as well as the pressure from the street. These are no longer simply protests against the law for an income tax increase, which the government sent to Parliament and refused to recall. The protests have become a court over the country’s government for judging its economic and political methods, in which the protesters saw very serious problems. Jordan’s King dissolved the lower chamber of Parliament under popular pressure and replaced the Prime Minister. But it is clear that this is not the last demand. The protest movement has widened and shifted from the capital Amman to the provinces. Observers believe that protest actions resemble the protests of 1989, and Jordan’s protest movement as part of the Arab Spring in 2011. Though these protests have an economic nature, many experts consider that a regime change in Jordan is a necessary political reform. Proposed solutions should not be specific from the economic point of view, but should move towards political reforms, so that the people can take part in their country’s politics and decision making.
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