The recent victory of the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) Lai Ching-te in Taiwan’s presidential election has heightened tensions between China and Taiwan, renewing the debate on a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan. While most defense analysts do not perceive a war in the Taiwan Strait as imminent, some notable figures have often warned that China might be tempted to launch a military offensive against Taiwan anytime soon. A four-star U.S. Air Force general even suggested last year that Beijing might take military action against the island by 2025.
Undoubtedly, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been relentless in its pursuit of control over Taiwan. Since the presidency of Beijing-skeptic Tsai Ing-Wen began in 2016, the Chinese state has employed a large-scale hybrid warfare campaign against Taipei to subvert Taiwan’s independence-leaning government. China’s hybrid warfare efforts have comprised isolating Taipei diplomatically, undermining public trust through propaganda and fake news, cyber-attacks, economic coercion, and military intimidation through air defense identification zone (ADIZ) incursionsand large-scale military exercises.
Despite China’s prolonged hybrid warfare campaign, the pro-independence DPP’s candidate emerged victorious in the recent election.
On paper, Chinese hybrid warfare activities against Taiwan may also escalate to conventional military operations at any time in the future. To assess the likelihood of a military invasion of Taiwan by China, it is crucial to understand the four key factors that led Beijing to adopt the hybrid warfare approach over the past eight years and whether those factors remain relevant.
China’s invasion of Taiwan seems unlikely in the short term. Instead, China would prefer to step up its hybrid warfare activities. The military aspects of China’s hybrid warfare operations may be more visible in the near future. Beijing may use maritime militias called ‘little blue men’ on a broader scale to harass and intimidate Taiwan.
1 comment:
The possibility of invasion is likely in the near future. Probably before our election. Reason, Biden. {Or those that pull his strings}China has been seeding cells within the US for quite sometime, but the purpose of open border was not only to allow low wage immigrants in , but also to destabilize the US. China has been moving military aged men into the country. They also have been moving large quantities of fentanyl into the country. They have been embedding malware into our infrastructure and military equipment via production and import. Xi is typical of Chinese leadership. Patient, but realistic. He also understands our weakness. We are a paper tiger, with a compromised corrupt leadership. Controlled by a WEF/hedge fund/satanic group bent upon one world government. They could care less about a democracy in Taiwan. In fact, it gets in the way of their goal of total control. China pretends to be on board with this globalist agenda. China looks at it as an opportunity and not a commitment. Logically China understands we are weakest during the election cycle. China is no Taliban. They will not invade our country with some large military operation. They don’t have to. They will just tighten the noose. To insure we stand down in the event they move on Taiwan. The next few months will determine the fate of Taiwan and maybe even the US. We maybe a paper tiger in the eyes of many, but …. We also have an underlying base that when awakened like a dog that shakes after being doused with water. Instead of water being removed it might be corrupted government instead. Either way will not prevent China from moving upon Taiwan.
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