South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol was on a state visit to the US from April 25 for six days. The top agenda of the visit was ‘how to contain, control, and neutralize the North Korean nuclear threat.’
Since the beginning of 2023, North Korea has carried out about a dozen missile tests. Kim Jong Un, the North Korean dictator, has been categorical in condemning military exercises being carried out jointly by South Korean and US military and has threatened to retaliate.
South Korea and the US have regularly carried out military exercises. However, American and South Korean relations went downhill during Trump’s presidency.
Proposed US Nuclear Submarine Deployment
To protect South Korea from the North Korean nuclear threat, the US has announced that it will deploy SSBN in South Korean waters. The event is yet to take place.
But if the US goes ahead with the deployment of nuclear-armed submarines in proximity to South Korea, it might result in direct confrontation not only between the US and North Korea but also between the US and China.
The World should be prepared to witness a replay of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis in the East China Sea because of the similarity of events slated to occur soon.
The seeds of the impending crisis have been sown due to the US’ recent unwanted and undesirable initiatives.
A look at the globe will indicate that US nuclear submarines, equipped with nuclear-warhead Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles, will also be able to strike mainland China.
However, if the SSBN deployment indeed does take place, it might, and will, be different from the Cuban Missile Crisis due to the following reasons:
a. In 1962, only two nuclear powers, the US and the USSR, challenged each other with a nuclear strike.
b. China, then, was not a nuclear power. China exploded its first nuclear device on October 8, 1964.
c. In 2023, there are nearly a dozen nations in possession of nukes.
d. China is a formidable economic and nuclear power now.
e. In 1962, the USSR’s decision to deploy nuclear missiles in Cuba forced the US to retaliate. Then, the USSR was the initiator. The US was the affected party.
f. In 2023, China will be the affected party, and the USA will be the initiator if the US does not back off from its decision to deploy SSBNs near South Korea.
g. In the event of an escalation, the US will have to face nukes from China and North Korea but also (maybe) from Russia.
The key issue, which might rather lead to a similar situation as the Cuban Missile Crisis, is the US announcement to deploy nuclear weapons capable submarines near South Korea.
Such a deployment aims to protect South Korea from any North Korean military or nuclear misadventure. However, a closer look at the probable region of deployment of nuclear submarines will indicate that the US will be able to threaten the underbelly of China exactly in the same manner as the Soviet missiles threatened the US underbelly. China will almost certainly react or retaliate in the way deemed fit.
Should that happen, will diplomacy succeed yet again and prevent a nuclear holocaust? Global grouping in 2023 is vastly different from what prevailed in 1962.
Unconfirmed reports indicate that the last SSBN from the US visited South Korea in 1980 and was believed to have sailed close to Kanghwa Bay, West of Inchon. SSBNs will have the freedom to deploy unchallenged anywhere in the Sea of Japan, East of South Korea, and the Yellow Sea region, West of South Korea.
SSBNs are extremely difficult to track. China, Russia, or North Korea cannot track and confirm the presence of US Navy SSBNs. If deployed in the abovementioned areas, the SSBN will threaten North Korea, China, and Russia.
Beijing has already reacted by describing the planned deployment of SSBNs by the US as a bid to promote the latter’s selfish geopolitical interests.
The US expansion of the nuclear umbrella has been termed an irresponsible action and a threat to world peace. The Chinese spokesperson said, “The United States has put regional security at risk and intentionally used the (Korean) peninsula issue as an excuse to create tensions.
What the US does is full of Cold War thinking, provoking bloc confrontation, undermining the nuclear non-proliferation system, damaging the strategic interests of other countries, exacerbating tensions on the Korean peninsula, undermining regional peace and stability, and running counter to the goal of the de-nuclearisation of the peninsula.
Although the US has clarified that no nuclear asset of the US will be permanently stationed in South Korea, however SSBNs, nuclear-capable bombers, and aircraft carriers will visit South Korea regularly.
Incidentally, the US decision to deploy Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system in South Korea in 2016 was vehemently opposed by China because China viewed it as a threat to its national security. China retaliated by imposing economic sanctions against South Korea.
The recently concluded AUKUS treaty has already raised hostility between China and the US. The decision to deploy SSBNs capable of carrying up to 20 MIRVed ballistic missiles in close proximity has invited extremely adverse reactions from China.
Russian Reaction
The Russian reaction has been similar. Russian foreign ministry spokesperson said, “The development is destabilizing in nature and will have serious negative consequences for regional security impacting global stability. The United States and NATO’s drive for decisive military superiority would bring nothing but escalating tensions and could provoke an arms race”.
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