It’s TOO LATE for NATO to win the war against Russia… here’s why
While the prostituted propaganda media absurdly claims that Russia is retreating and NATO forces are winning the war in Ukraine, the truth is far more sobering: NATO has already lost the war with Russia. Here’s how we know:
A land war with a major military power is a long, drawn out slug fest that requires the sustained expenditure of enormous quantities of munitions: Artillery shells, rockets, missiles, small arms cartridges and so on.
To supply these munitions, a fighting force needs to be backed by a strong munitions manufacturing infrastructure or have huge stockpiles that can sustain the war while supplies are depleted. The United States has neither. No sufficiently large stockpiles and no existing munitions manufacturing infrastructure that can keep pace with Russia, which at times has expended up to 20,000 artillery rounds per day. (Note: The existing munitions infrastructure in the United States can’t even churn out that many rounds in a full month of production…)
A recently-published think-tank analysis warned that as it currently stands, the U.S. would run out of long-range, precision-guided munitions in a war with China over Taiwan in less than a week — a problem that author Seth Jones called one of “empty bins.”
“The United States has been slow to replenish its arsenal, and the DoD has only placed on contract a fraction of the weapons it has sent to Ukraine,” Jones, a senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) wrote.
If you’ve never heard of cotton linters, they’re a critical component needed for the manufacture of artillery rounds. The primary source is China, and China’s exports on cotton linters are currently nine months behind schedule, causing havoc with Germany’s munitions manufacturing. As Nikkei Asia reports:
German ammunition makers at a recent defense symposium near Munich flagged that the lead time for orders of cotton linters from China — a key component for propelling charges for both small guns and artillery — has tripled to up to nine months, German-language daily Die Welt reported.
While cotton linters are a commodity material produced and traded across the globe, the report cited unnamed industry sources saying that all European ammunition manufacturers rely on China for them.
The massive bottlenecks in raw material supply “concern especially ammunition and special steels,” Wolfgang Hellmich, the defense affairs speaker for the ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) in parliament, told Nikkei Asia…
The United States lacks domestic raw materials production as well as a reliable, educated domestic labor pool.
The Pentagon recently announced it would increase artillery production by 500%, hoping to achieve output of 90,000 artillery rounds per month. This was widely reported in the media, but what didn’t grab headlines is the fact that the factories to produce these rounds don’t exist and have to be built from the ground up. The process of building the factories will reportedly take two years, and that’s assuming everything goes as planned (which it never does).
Sometime after these factories are built and tested, additional munitions could be produced. Most likely this will begin to appear in late 2025 or 2026. The problem with this plan, of course, is that Russia will likely defeat Ukraine this year (in 2023), because Russia has the capacity to churn out these high levels of munitions right now.
The USA and NATO, in other words, could conceivably crank up munitions production to fight a war in 2025 or 2026, but not in 2023 or even 2024. This means Russia has a huge window of opportunity to defeat Ukraine and send NATO packing, long before NATO can scrounge up the munitions to pose any real threat to Russia’s military forces.
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