US Military’s Failing Deterrence Against China

US Military’s Failing Deterrence Against China

Judith Bergman

One of the Pentagon’s main concerns is China’s continued accelerating nuclear buildup. Every year, the Pentagon’s estimates of China’s nuclear buildup appear to grow exponentially.

When the Pentagon assessed China’s nuclear arsenal in its annual report to Congress in November 2020, it projected that China’s nuclear warhead stockpile, which the Pentagon then estimated to be in the low 200s, would “at least double in size” over the next decade. Just one year later, in November 2021, the Pentagon found itself acknowledging that China’s nuclear buildup was taking place at an astonishing speed, with the nuclear warhead stockpile now possibly quadrupling over the next decade, to up to 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027.

Now, in Pentagon’s 2022 annual report to Congress, released at the end of November, the Pentagon has doubled last year’s projection. The report estimates that if China continues at its current pace, by 2035 it will have 1,500 nuclear warheads, adding:

“Over the next decade, the PRC aims to modernize, diversify and expand its nuclear forces. Compared to the PLA’s [People’s Liberation Army] nuclear modernization efforts a decade ago, current efforts exceed beyond previous attempts in both scale and complexity…

“In 2021, Beijing probably accelerated its nuclear expansion; DoD estimates China’s operational nuclear warheads stockpile has surpassed 400.”

In just two years since 2020, when the Pentagon wrongly estimated that it would take China a decade to double its nuclear stockpile at the time of approximately 200 nuclear warheads, China has already doubled its stockpile. According to the Pentagon:

“The PLA plans to ‘basically complete modernization’ of its national defense and armed forces by 2035. If China continues the pace of its nuclear expansion, it will likely field a stockpile of about 1500 warheads by its 2035 timeline.”

Given the Pentagon’s previous faulty estimates, China may likely have those 1,500 warheads much sooner than 2035. There is also no reason why China should stop at 1,500 warheads. As part of its plans to become the preeminent world power by 2049, China could well continue working towards nuclear superiority over the US.

The Commander of US Strategic Command, Adm. Charles Richard gave an extremely concerning warning in November about China’s rapid buildup, which he estimated was out-competing the US.

“As I assess our level of deterrence against China, the ship is slowly sinking,” Admiral Charles Richard said.

More...