A new think tank report obtained by The Jerusalem Post warns of the possibility of Iran launching an accelerated effort to achieve a few “crude” nuclear weapons in six months.
According to Monday’s report by Institute for Science and International Security president David Albright, even though top Israeli officials recently told the Post that the Islamic Republic’s weapons group was two years awayfrom being able to deliver a nuclear warhead via a ballistic missile, there could be a much more pressing threat.
In popular discussions, this option is often referred to as a “dirty” or “suitcase nuclear bomb,” but the truth is much more complex, although still quite threatening.
What is a "dirty" nuclear bomb?
The extra nuance is that no nuclear device, no matter how small, really fits into a suitcase or could be carried around by a single person.
Experts concerned about an improvised or crude nuclear bomb tend to discuss it being delivered by a vehicle, such as a truck. The explosive power of such a nuclear weapon would be much less than a full-fledged weapon delivered on a ballistic missile, but it could still be devastating.
By avoiding having to solve all of the challenges associated with measuring, miniaturizing and detonating a nuclear warhead via a ballistic missile, a smaller number of tasks could be solved in about six months.
Most of these would relate to bringing together the myriad components needed to build an actual bomb, some of which the ayatollahs have concealed in various locations across Iran dating back to 2003. Crossing at least a crude nuclear-device threshold could also involve performing an underground test to make sure the device would not be a dud.
The report first dissected how Tehran would most likely go about accelerating the process to finish building a nuclear device.
Although some analysts present Iran’s choice as binary – go after a full-fledged nuclear missile, which takes two years, or drop that effort and pursue just an accelerated “crude” device approach – Albright said the ayatollahs could easily move forward on parallel tracks at the same time.
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