Airborn Pneumonic Plague 'Unprecedented': Significant Increase In Cases Over Last 5 Days

Deadly airborne plague cases rocket by almost 40%

• The World Health Organization now states there are 1,801 suspected cases
• This is significantly higher than the 1,309 the agency reported last Thursday
• Professor Robin May, an infectious diseases expert at Birmingham University, told MailOnline that the outbreak is 'concerning definitely'
• Analysis of figures by MailOnline show the epidemic could strike a further 20,000 people in just a matter of weeks, if current trends continue 
• The 'unprecedented' outbreak has prompted warnings in 9 nearby countries

The deadly airborne plague spreading rapidly across Madagascar is now at 'crisis' point as cases have rocketed by 37 per cent in just five days, official figures reveal.

The outbreak, the 'worst in 50 years', is being fueled by a strain more lethal than the one which usually strikes the country off the coast of Africa.

The World Health Organization (WHO) now states there are 1,801 suspected cases - significantly higher than the 1,309 it reported last Thursday.

Academics have revealed such a jump in cases over the period of five days is concerning and have predicted it could get worse. The most recent statistics show there have been 127 deaths.

Professor Robin May, an infectious diseases expert at Birmingham University, told MailOnline that 'whichever way you look' at the outbreak, it’s 'concerning definitely'.

Analysis of figures by MailOnline show the epidemic could strike a further 20,000 people in just a matter of weeks, if current trends continue. It could be made worse by crowds gathering for an annual celebration to honour the dead earlier this week.

The 'truly unprecedented' outbreak has prompted warnings in nine nearby countries - South Africa, Seychelles, La Reunion, Mozambique, Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, Comoros and Mauritius.

Two thirds of this year's cases have been caused by the airborne pneumonic plague and means it is spread through coughing, sneezing or spitting. It is different to the traditional bubonic form that strikes the country each year.

Speaking exclusively to MailOnline, Professor Johnjoe McFadden, an expert in molecular genetics at the University of Surrey, said: 'It’s a crisis at the moment and we don’t know how bad it’s going to get.'  

Professor Jimmy Whitworth, an international public health scientist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, told MailOnline earlier today: 'This outbreak though is the worst for 50 years or more.'

Plague season hits Madagascar each year and still has six months to run, however, this year’s outbreak has seen triple the amount of cases that was expected.

This year's outbreak has started earlier as forest fires have driven rats into rural communities, which has then spread into cities for the first time, local reports state.

It comes amid warnings annual celebrations to honour the dead saw large crowds gather in cities, increasing the risk of infection.

All Saints Day, otherwise known as the 'Day of the Dead', is a public holiday which takes place on November 1 each year, sees families often gathering at local cemeteries.

'In that type of situation, it may be easy to forget about respiratory etiquettes,' Panu Saaristo, the International Federation of Red Cross' team leader for health in Madagascar, told MailOnline.

Bubonic plague, which is transmitted by flea bites and was responsible for the ‘Black Death’ in the 14th century, which killed 100 million people.

If left untreated, the Yersinia pestis bacteria can reach the lungs. This is where it turns pneumonic – described as the ‘deadliest and most rapid form of plague’.

Pneumonic, which is much more serious, is spread through coughing, sneezing or spitting and can kill within 24 hours if untreated.

Health officials are unsure how this year's outbreak began, but local media report that forest fires have driven rats towards rural communities.

This is believed to have been the start of the bubonic outbreak, which then develops into the more virulent pneumonic form which spreads rapidly without treatment.