Drama in Lebanon

Thats the title to one of many articles circulating today regarding the rapidly evolving situation in Lebanon. We've all been waiting for this, and now it has actually happened. Fortunately we have a reasonably good secondary article which discusses the ramifications of this scenario, but first the facts:

Hizbullah topples Lebanese gov't ahead of Hariri findings

Lebanon's year-old unity government collapsed Wednesday after Hizbullah ministers and their allies resigned over tensions stemming from a UN-backed tribunal investigating the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri.

At first glance, that would seem like a good thing, but not so fast - the situation is far more complicated than that:

The walkout ushers in the country's worst political crisis since 2008 in one of the most volatile corners of the Middle East.

The tribunal was widely expected to name members of Hizbullah in upcoming indictments, which many fear could re-ignite sectarian tensions that have plagued the tiny country for decades.

Here is some background information on this situation:

Rafik Hariri's assassination in a suicide bombing that killed 22 other people both stunned and polarized Lebanese. He was a Sunni who was a hero to his own community and backed by many Christians who sympathized with his efforts in the last few months of his life to reduce Syrian influence in the country. A string of assassinations of anti-Syrian politicians and public figures followed, which UN investigators have said may have been connected to the Hariri killing.

At the time, it seemed clear that this assassination was engineered by Syria and carried out by Hezbollah. Further investigation has made that fact clear. That takes us to the current "crisis":

The tribunal was widely expected to name members of Hizbullah in upcoming indictments, which many fear could re-ignite sectarian tensions that have plagued the tiny country for decades.

Hizbullah, which is backed by Iran and Syria, has denounced the tribunal as an "Israeli project" and urged Western-backed Prime Minister Saad Hariri — the son of the slain politician — to reject any findings by the court even before it announced any indictments.

But the prime minister has refused to break cooperation with the tribunal.

Hariri formed the current national unity government in November 2009, but it has struggled to function amid deep divisions. The crisis over the tribunal has paralyzed the government in recent months.

Violence has been a major concern as tensions rise in Lebanon, where Shiites, Sunnis and Christians each make up about a third of the country's four million people. In 2008, sectarian clashes killed 81 people and nearly plunged Lebanon into another civil war.

More below, with additional information extracted:

Hezbollah and allies resign, toppling Lebanon government

They played down prospects of a repeat of the violence of May 2008, when gunmen took over Beirut after government moves against Hezbollah. But Sunni power Saudi Arabia, which backs Hariri, warned the resignations "will cause clashes once again."

Announcing the resignations, Christian government minister Gebran Bassil blamed Washington for obstructing the Saudi-Syrian efforts and called on Lebanon's president to "take the required steps for forming a new government."

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Lebanon's coalition crisis was a transparent attempt to subvert justice, but vowed that the work of the U.N.-backed tribunal would go on.

So what does all of this mean?

Below we see an interesting commentary from the Jerusalem Post:

Analysis: Israel needs to be concerned

Hizbullah’s decision to topple the Lebanese government was exactly what OC Northern Command Maj.-Gen. Gadi Eizenkot expected would happen with the completion of the United Nations probe into the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Harir.

While such a move means political instability in Beirut in the immediate term, this does not mean that Eizenkot can rest with the IDF concerned that political deadlock in Lebanon could potentially lead to violence along the border with Israel.

In recent weeks, senior intelligence officers voiced minimal concern with the possibility that Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, fearing the repercussions of Hizbullah being blamed for the Hariri assassination, would decide to attack Israel to divert attention away from the tribunal.

It is no secret that Hizbullah has superior military capabilities and better trained soldiers than the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), which means that if it wants to Hizbullah could take over all of Lebanon, likely within a matter of days. If it decides to take to the streets and attempt a coup, a civil war would erupt which could potentially lead to a war with Israel as well.

It is important to understand why Nasrallah is so concerned with the findings of the Hague-based tribunal, mainly because if Hizbullah is found guilty, as expected, of assassinating Hariri then this would contradict the image it has tried to create over the years as being the defender of Lebanon. If it was defending Lebanon, why did it assassinate the country’s prime minister?

The problem for Hizbullah is that toppling the Lebanese government does not ensure that this image will be retained. What it is trying to do is force the current prime minister Saad Hariri to denounce the tribunal’s findings and clear Hizbullah’s name.

Israel will in the meantime continue watching Lebanon from afar but this time its eyes will not just be on the weapons shipments that cross from Syria into the Beka Valley. It will also be keeping close tabs on Beirut where political chaos is currently prevailing.

As with most situations in the Middle East, this one is complicated and unstable. Hezbollah has worked too hard and too long to allow their grip on Lebanon to be released. The general consensus on this situation during the build-up to this development was that if Hezbollah took this action as they now have, a coup attempt could ensue, leading to civil war. Such a civil war would almost certainly lead to Hezbollah dominance, given their military superiority. At that point, they would have no restraint in their dealings with Israel.

We may be seeing the early stages of that worst-case scenario. Israel also has significant concerns, as instability in Lebanon, coupled with Hezbollah (and of course their allies, Syria and Iran) potentially attempting a coup can only lead to more violence and bloodshed.

This situation is just emerging and more will be seen in the coming hours and days.

We'll be watching this very closely for further developments.