Since the current negotiations among the major powers signatory to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action began with Iran and the participation of the US in 2015, I keep reading analyses and reports of a growing mismatch between American and Israeli positions on the US return to the nuclear deal.
I have even been led to imagine that the Biden administration might sacrifice a strong strategic alliance with Israel if it were to oppose his position on returning to the deal.
There are several Western reports of clear messages from the US, described by some as “surprise orders” for Israel to stop its attempts to derail the ongoing negotiations in Vienna with Iran. Washington may be very concerned by the comments of Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi.
Ashkenazi said his country would “do everything” to ensure that Iran does not have nuclear weapons. Similar – if not harsher – statements were made by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Other reports have pointed to a widening gap between American and Israeli positions on how to deal with the Iranian threat.
There may be a lack of trust, transparency and coordination between the two sides. But they want to avoid a public rift between the two allies, as happened during the negotiations that led to the signing of the 2015 agreement, the same sources said.
One report quotes Israeli officials as saying that in a recent meeting with his US counterparts, national security adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat expressed Tel Aviv’s concern that the Biden administration was not concretely taking Israel’s viewpoint into account.
On the other hand, according to Israeli officials, the US side has expressed concern about Israel’s involvement in military and intelligence operations against Iran without full coordination with Washington.
Clearly, one reason for Israel’s concern is that it is not fully aware and informed of what is happening in the Vienna negotiations, and what the US has proposed in those negotiations to persuade the Iranian mullahs to stop violating the terms of the nuclear deal. How does the White House plan to lift sanctions on Iran in exchange for Iran’s commitment to the deal?
Based on analysis of available and published information, the frequency of recent visits between US and Israeli officials, particularly at the military and intelligence levels, reflects the Biden administration’s desire not to anger the Israeli ally. But this does not preclude the possibility of a split around President Joe Biden’s views.
Indeed, Israel is most concerned about the uncertainty surrounding the level of secrecy in Iran’s nuclear program. It fears that there are Iranian plans to enrich uranium in secret facilities, safe from inspection.
Biden’s team, starting with National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Tony Blinken and Iran Chief Robert Malley, all agree that returning to the nuclear deal is imperative. This, they say, is the only way to deal with the Iranian nuclear threat and to turn attention to the Chinese challenge.
But Israel is also entitled to be concerned about this dynamic. This is because the agreement that everyone is seeking to return to is a Trojan horse that the mullahs of Iran have used over the past five years to expand and intervene grossly in several countries, and to extend their geopolitical influence in the Middle East.
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