Much of the world’s attention has been focused on the Strait of Hormuz, due to the Iran conflict and the increase in energy prices following its closure by the Iranian regime. Around 20% of the world’s naval traffic passes through the Strait.
However, another waterway has also come into focus following recent tensions between the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. That waterway is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Gulf of Aden, south of the Arabian Peninsula, with the Red Sea.
Like the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb is one of the world's busiest maritime chokepoints, carrying about 4.8 million barrels of oil per day, significant volumes of Qatari liquefied natural gas, and roughly 10–12% of global shipping traffic, or about 19,000 vessels each year.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had previously threatened to close off the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as part of its attempt to weaponize the Hormuz, following the U.S.-Israeli air campaign launched on Feb. 28.
Iran’s ability to threaten both Hormuz and – via the Houthis – Bab el-Mandeb raises the economic stakes of the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.
At its narrowest point, the Bab el-Mandeb ["Gate of Tears" in Arabic] waterway is only around 26 kilometers (16 miles) wide, functioning as a natural chokepoint between Djibouti and the Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen.
Bab el-Mandeb is the only direct route from the Gulf of Aden to the Suez Canal, making it the fastest shipping route from Asia to Europe. It is also the only route for crude oil shipped from Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu to Asia. The Suez Canal accounts for about 2% of Egypt's gross domestic product, generating around $10 billion in revenue in 2022–2023, before the start of the Gaza war.
While the Houthis lack the ability to completely shut down the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the threat of attacks would likely force most shipping to bypass the waterway and the Suez Canal, depriving Egypt of significant revenue. Together with the Strait of Hormuz, the effective closure of both waterways would allow a single entity – the Islamic Republic of Iran– to disrupt roughly 30% of the global oil and gas supply.
Following recent Houthi drone strikes on Saudi oil facilities and an announced blockade of Saudi ships passing through the Red Sea, many feared the Iranians were attempting to act on that threat, raising fresh concerns about global energy supplies and trade.
After the start of U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran, Saudi Arabia began diverting some of its oil exports through Yanbu following the IRGC's closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Closing the Bab el-Mandeb would force tankers and container ships heading to and from Europe and Asia to divert around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, adding weeks to the delivery times, as demonstrated in late 2023, after the Houthis targeted commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
The Houthis said the attacks were carried out in solidarity with Hamas after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel.
However, due to the security risks, multiple shipping companies abandoned the route, opting instead for the longer journey around the African continent. The rerouting caused a relatively minor inconvenience for Israel but dealt a significant financial blow to Egypt, which reported an almost 66% decline in Suez Canal traffic, according to the Egyptian government.
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