Summary
Diplomacy is not yet dead, as Bloomberg reports Iran is mulling a short-term pause to shipments through Hormuz Strait, in order to avoid a fresh clash with US forces & avoid testing Trump's blockade.
Mediators are scrambling to put together another round of US-Iran talks in the coming days: Iran is reportedly offering a 5-year moratorium on nuclear program, while US demands 20.
Saudis are among those calling for an end to the US blockade of the Hormuz Strait, amid fears the Houthis could shut down Bab al-Mandeb strait. Chinese ship testing America's Hormuz blockade appears to U-turn.
Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Naim Qassem rejects upcoming talks between the Lebanese government and Israel, which are set for 11am in Washington, DC on Tuesday.
Iran Could Pause Hormuz Shipping, As Chinese Tanker U-Turns
Bloomberg says Tuesday in a fresh report that "Iran is considering a short-term pause to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid testing a US blockade and scuppering a fresh round of peace talks, according to a person familiar with the Tehran’s deliberations."
"The potential pause reflects a desire to avoid immediate escalation at a sensitive diplomatic juncture as Washington and Tehran sort logistics for another face-to-face meeting, the person said, asking not to be identified as the deliberations are private," continues Bloomberg. It adds, "Holding back maritime activity for several days is seen as one possible, pragmatic step to prevent an incident that could undermine the fragile efforts to revive discussions, people familiar with the matter said."
This would be seen as short-term de-escalation, and suggests that Tehran indeed still has the desire of taking a hopeful, pragmatic approach - rather than returning the all out war by the close of the temporary ceasefire. No one is willing to completely shut the door on all diplomacy, and the bombs have been silent across the Gulf and in Iran and Israel. Per latest emerging reports:
The Nasdaq 100 looked set to notch its longest streak of gains since 2021 as optimism that the US and Iran are considering another round of peace talks pushed oil lower and lifted stocks globally.
Chinese ship testing America's Hormuz blockade appears to U-turn...
5-Years vs. 20-Year Nuclear Moratorium
More info and color has been added in the wake of failed talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan, per The New York Times citing officials from both countries. Iran signaled Monday it would halt uranium enrichment for up to five years. The Trump administration rejected the offer, according to two senior Iranian officials and one US official who spoke to the Times.
The US position, shaped in part by Vice President JD Vance, calls for a roughly 20-year suspension. Vance has argued such a timeframe is necessary to permanently limit Iran's nuclear capabilities. "The Iranians, in a formal response sent on Monday, said they would agree to up to five years, according to two senior Iranian officials and one U.S. official. Trump has rejected that offer, the U.S. official said," writes NY Times.
"The official said the U.S. has also asked Iran to remove highly enriched uranium from the country, and the Iranians have insisted the fuel stays inside Iran. But they have offered to dilute it significantly, so that it could not be used to produce a nuclear weapon," the report adds.
Sides Could Return to Islamabad for Talks
This behind the scenes back-and-forth suggests that the mediated talks might not be entirely over, also as the clock ticks away on the initial 2-week ceasefire, now a week in. US and Iranian negotiating teams plan to return to Pakistan later this week to resume talks aimed at ending the Gulf war, Pakistani and Iranian officials said Tuesday, as cited in Reuters. Other reports say the talks could be hosted in another venue.
However, US officials have not confirmed the plans, and the reality is that in Islamabad the two sides demands were very far apart, having reportedly finally collapsed on the nuclear issue.
Israel-Lebanon talks are taking a separate track, set to begin in Washington Tuesday, but Hezbollah has rejected this process - with only the Lebanese government represented.
France's President Emmanuel Macron is among those calling on Washington and Tehran to urgently resume negotiations to end the war, and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz "without controls or tolls, as soon as possible." Iran is reportedly charging steep tolls to let a handful of 'friendly' countries' vessels through - a situation which President Trump has warned against.
"If Iran does want to shut down Bab al-Mandeb, the Houthis are the obvious partner to do it, and their response to the Gaza conflict demonstrates that they have the capacity to do it," Adam Baron, an expert on Yemen at the New America policy institute, told the Journal.
Red China will soon be eating lice soup with crackers made from tree bark - just like the good old days under Chairman Mao.
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