Opinion: As Trump threatens force, intermediaries including Turkey and Qatar push Tehran toward talks; US forces rehearse defenses against Iranian retaliation, while Tehran readies missiles, drones and maritime disruption if diplomacy collapses
U.S. President Donald Trump’s statements over the past 24 hours suggest more than implicitly that he is interested in negotiations with Iran’s ruling clerical regime, with the goal of stripping Tehran of its ability to develop and produce nuclear weapons.
Trump has not said publicly that talks must also address limits on Iran’s ballistic missile program or an end to its regional subversion through proxy forces, demands emphasized by Israel. Still, recent remarks by Trump and a flood of statements from Iranian officials indicate a tough, indirect struggle is already underway over the very terms of opening formal negotiations. Saudi Arabia, led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is among the mediators involved.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has barred his officials from holding direct talks with Washington. As a result, the Witkoff–Araghchi channel between Trump’s envoy and Iran’s foreign minister is currently inactive. Instead, intensive indirect contacts are taking place through intermediaries including Oman, Qatar and Turkey. Iranian officials acknowledged on Saturday that indirect negotiations with the United States are underway.
Trump’s deployment of what he called a “beautiful armada” to the region is intended as pressure on Iran’s conservative leadership, with Khamenei at the forefront, to soften its position and come to the table. For now, Tehran is projecting defiance, rejecting talks under American conditions out of concern that concessions would be perceived as weakness domestically and reignite mass protests. The regime is acutely sensitive to any sign of blinking, fearing for its own survival.
At the same time, U.S. Central Command continues preparations for a possible strike. According to assessments, the main challenge facing American military planners is the collection of precise, reliable intelligence on high-value targets inside Iran. Firepower is not the problem. What is lacking are targets whose destruction or elimination could, in the best-case scenario, collapse the regime, or at least weaken it enough to force Tehran into negotiations.
Trump is seeking a decisive achievement that would distinguish him from former President Barack Obama, who reached a nuclear agreement with Iran without addressing its missile program or regional aggression. In the meantime, CENTCOM is conducting what is being described as a large-scale defensive air exercise across the Middle East.
The drill is designed to prepare U.S. forces to respond rapidly to Iranian attacks on American assets and those of its regional allies, including Israel. Two main scenarios are being rehearsed: a surprise Iranian preemptive strike intended to disrupt U.S. attack plans, and the more likely scenario of Iranian retaliation following an American strike.
Statements from Iranian officials in recent days shed light on Tehran’s expected tactics in both cases. Iran plans to launch salvos of ballistic missiles, attack drones and cruise missiles, similar to its previous direct confrontations with Israel. This time, however, the primary targets would be U.S. bases, naval vessels and economic assets across the Middle East, as well as energy infrastructure in Gulf states that could enable American attacks from their territory.
Unlike previous rounds with Israel, which focused on land targets, Iran is now threatening preparations for maritime warfare. Potential measures include mining the Strait of Hormuz, deploying swarms of fast-attack boats, using naval drones and firing shore-to-sea missiles. An effective blockade would disrupt a significant share of global oil and gas supplies, causing severe damage even to countries not directly involved in a U.S. strike
Iran is also expected to activate the Houthis in Yemen to intensify attacks on commercial shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and to target the U.S. Fifth Fleet operating in the Persian Gulf.
As for Israel, Iranian rhetoric suggests it is not currently high on Tehran’s target list. Nevertheless, Israeli defense officials are preparing for potential spillover, a process the Israel Defense Forces have been undertaking for weeks.
The region is entering a volatile phase in which Trump’s threats, diplomatic maneuvering and military preparations are unfolding simultaneously, with the risk of rapid escalation never far from the surface.
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