Friedrich Merz of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), who is considered the candidate likeliest to prevail as the country’s next chancellor in today’s election, believes that the days when Europe could rely on the United States for defense may be over.
“We must prepare for the possibility that Donald Trump will no longer uphold NATO’s mutual defense commitment unconditionally,” Merz told journalists from the German television network ZDF who interviewed him on Friday.
“That is why, in my view, it is crucial that Europeans make the greatest possible efforts to ensure that we are at least capable of defending the European continent on our own,” he added.
Merz’s comments came at the end of a week in which US President Donald Trump clashed with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, claiming that Zelensky is a dictator and that it was in fact Ukraine, not Russia, that had started the present war. The US also held direct talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia without participation by either European or Ukrainian representatives. The previous week, US Vice President JD Vance for his part stated that he doesn’t believe that Russia and China pose a threat to Europe, and instead pointed the finger at Western Europe’s liberal governments as the continent’s greatest threat.
The American President has also been vocally critical of what he perceives as a lack of seriousness in Europe’s commitment to NATO, especially in the area of funding.
The US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance has guaranteed Europe’s security since 1949, at the dawn of the Cold War. Article 5 of the NATO treaty obliges all member states to treat an attack on one member as an attack on all, and commits them to providing mutual defense, including through direct use of armed force – and up to and including nuclear weapons.
The United States’ vast nuclear arsenal has always acted as a formidable deterrent against Europe’s security threats, and Russia in particular.
When Merz was asked if he believes that President Trump would honor Article 5 in the event of an attack on a NATO member state, he replied, “I wouldn’t bet everything I have on any question I’m asked, and certainly not on this one.”
Merz indicated that one alternative for Germany would be to enter into a new alliance with France and/or the United Kingdom, which are both nuclear powers, to guarantee mutual defense. This would ensure that Germany remains under a so-called “nuclear umbrella” to deter potential aggressors.
Merz pointed out that French President Emmanuel Macron had already extended such an offer to Germany on several previous occasions, but that the government had never made any decision one way or the other.
France could be more useful to Europe in the event of the collapse of NATO’s mutual defense guarantees, as the United Kingdom’s nuclear strategy is tied to that of the US through previous agreements. Britain’s nuclear weapons were also designed and built in the US. France, on the other hand, has an entirely independent nuclear force.
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