Will Israel’s Northern Residents Be A Casualty Of The Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire?

Will Israel’s Northern Residents Be A Casualty Of The Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire?

Amir Tsarfati

The Nuts and Bolts of the Ceasefire

According to the New York Times, there are five parts to this truce:

1. Israel and Hezbollah will cease firing for 60 days
2. Israel will gradually withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon
3. Hezbollah forces will move north to be replaced in the south by Lebanese military
4. These withdrawals will create a buffer zone along the Israeli border
5. The goal is for this truce to become permanent

A number of nations will oversee this deal, including the United States and France, as well as a peacekeeping force belonging to the United Nations. If Israel sees Hezbollah terrorists in the border zone, they retain the right to military action.

Before and After the Ceasefire

In the days leading up to the ceasefire, fighting was hot and heavy. Hezbollah fired 250 rockets and other airborne weapons into Israel on Sunday, causing some damage. Israel struck back hard all the way up to the time the ceasefire went into effect. Hezbollah’s Aerial Unit 127 was particularly hard hit, losing in excess of 150 UAV launch positions, 30 command centers, 20 weapons storage facilities containing UAVs and cruise missiles, and four drone and missile manufacturing workshops. Both sides wanted to inflict as much damage as they could before they had to silence their guns.

Since the ceasefire began, there has been a mass migration of Lebanese back south to the second and third tier cities and towns. First tier towns would be those right along the border. But along with the residents have come Hezbollah operatives who have simply put on civilian clothing. There is no one there to stop them, because as of the time of this writing, the Lebanese army and UNIFIL (the UN’s peacekeepers in Lebanon) are still back at their bases apparently trying to figure out how to lace up their combat boots.

Meanwhile, down in Israel the residents of north still aren’t able to go home, nor will they be able to until it is assured that the threat directly across the border has been dealt with. It had looked like we were well on the way to making that happen. But all that progress is being reversed.

My Opinion of the Ceasefire

This is a terrible deal. Here is my take on the ceasefire:

The supposed buffer zone in southern Lebanon is not a real buffer. It is space that will be occupied by the Lebanese military, UNIFIL, and civilians that can easily be infiltrated by Hezbollah.

Lebanese residents who allowed Hezbollah to operate from their villages are experiencing no repercussions. They can move back in so they can prepare the guest rooms for when their terrorist friends sneak back down to their home-away-from-home.

As mentioned above, Hezbollah operatives can simply change into Lebanese army uniforms and return to the south. There is no shibboleth that can help determine the terrorists from the civilians.

France, who doesn’t even allow Israel to participate in weapons exhibitions within their borders, is now part of the supervision mechanism. Why do I think that they will lean in their judgments toward the Francophile Lebanese? At least Paris has come out and said that Netanyahu is entitled to immunity from ICC arrest warrants because Israel is not a party to the court. We’ll give them a very small tip of the cap for that one.

A 60-day-truce is essentially an end to hostilities. Unless Hezbollah does something completely nuts, like try to perpetrate their own October 7, there is little chance of Israel being able to gin up enough international goodwill to relaunch an invasion. This very likely would be true even with Donald Trump in office.

Benjamin Netanyahu promised a generational change. What we got in the north is more of the same. Fight hard, sacrifice our children, then pull back when the international pressure gets too tough. I will admit that I have the benefit of distance. I am not sitting in his office having to deal with the internal and international pressures which have to be back-breaking. When Netanyahu summed up the ceasefire deal, he put forth three items:

• The ceasefire was forced on Israel by the Biden administration by continuing the embargo of much-needed arms.
• Israel will use the time to go after the source of Hezbollah’s power – Iran. It will begin now and go full speed after Trump takes office. It is good that Netanyahu emphasized this because Iran International has reported that the Islamic regime has injected gas into thousands of advanced centrifuges in order to enrich more weapons-grade uranium. The progress of this program must be stopped while it still can.
• Israel is forced to wait for the next White House administration to go all in.

Netanyahu must find a way to pick back up the battle to wipe out Hezbollah once Trump is in office. Otherwise, the north will never feel safe. The prime minister has two years left in his term, and he likely won’t run again. To secure his legacy as a generational leader, he must destroy Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Iranian nuclear program