President-elect Donald Trump’s comeback victory Tuesday weakens diplomatic efforts to end Israel’s multifront wars in the short term and calls into question US long-term support for Israel’s military campaigns against Iran and its proxies.
It’s the equivalent of a diplomatic bombshell, whose chilling effects will be felt almost immediately, and which already seems to freeze such ceasefire efforts.
Trump’s policies on all issues relating to Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran will be diametrically different than his predecessor US President Joe Biden and he will chart a new course.
That knowledge alone creates chaos in a war, in which the US had taken the diplomatic lead in ceasefire initiatives and backed Israel on the diplomatic stage. It has also headed a defensive military coalition that protects Israel from Iranian missile attacks and has supported Israel with military weaponry and supplies.
The Biden administration’s role this week is already not what it was last week. The question now is what can happen in the next three months and what would happen after January 20.
Theoretically, a Trump victory should be a celebratory event for right-wing Israelis and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in particular.
Netanyahu was quick to congratulate Trump on X, writing, “Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America.
“This is a huge victory!” Netanyahu wrote, congratulating Trump who during his first term (2017-2021) was viewed by many Israelis as a true friend of Israel.
During that tenure in office, Trump moved the US embassy to Jerusalem and recognized it as Israel’s capital. He supported the legality of West Bank settlements and the possibility of Israeli sovereignty over 30% of that territory.
Trump exited the Iran deal – which Israel opposed – halted US payments to UNRWA, and withdrew from the UN Human Rights Council.
Most significantly, he crafted the Abraham Accords, a rubric under which Israel has normalized and can normalize ties with its Arab neighbors.
Trump was also good for Israel in peace time because he is most capable when wielding soft power. He returns to the White House in a time of major wars, including in the Middle East, that could herald a potential Third World War.
Even before his win in Tuesday’s election, he had promised to make peace in both the Middle East and Ukraine.
IN URGING his supporters to head to the polls, he wrote on X/Twitter, that Harris “and her warmonger Cabinet will invade the Middle East, get millions of Muslims killed, and start World War III. VOTE TRUMP, AND BRING BACK PEACE!”
He continued with that theme in his victory speech early Wednesday morning, stating, “We want a strong and powerful military, and ideally we don’t have to use it.
His words open the question as to whether Trump will be good for Israel in wartime, particularly given his reluctance to engage militarily.
Some think his entry into the geopolitics of Israel’s multifront war, would bring it to an end.
He is expected to pressure Israel to wrap up the Israel-Hamas War and with Hezbollah, while at the same time supporting ceasefire goals that are more likely to favor Israel.
This comes precisely at a time when Israel had achieved many of its military goals and is fighting in the absence of ceasefire deals that provide adequate security.
It’s also presumed that Trump would support Israeli military action against Iran including the bombing of its nuclear faculties. The Iranians themselves have shown that they fear Trump, so it remains possible that his return to the White House could bring a tempering influence on Tehran.
No comments:
Post a Comment