Iran is likely still tallying the costs of the Israeli airstrikes launched on Saturday in retaliation for Tehran’s massive October 1 missile barrage on Israel. Among the targets that Israel appears to have gone after are Iran’s prized Russian-made S-300 air defense systems, according to U.S. and Israeli officials. Putting the Iranian S-300s out of action leaves the door open to follow-up strikes by Israel, including larger-scale direct attacks. As we noted on Saturday, this serves as both a contingent opportunity for the Israel Defense Forces and a deterrent against a response from Iran.
Among the critical Iranian military infrastructure destroyed on Saturday were its three surviving S-300 long-range surface-to-air missile systems. This is the assessment of unnamed U.S. and Israeli officials speaking to the Wall Street Journal. Iran’s only other S-300 system was already hit by Israel earlier this year.
The same officials disclosed that Iran managed to bring down “few if any” of the missiles that Israel launched from around 100 jet fighters, during Saturday’s raid, codenamed Operation Days of Repentance.
The officials’ statements tally with assessments from the U.S. think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), including descriptions of Israel inflicting “serious damage to the Iranian integrated air defense network.”
“The IDF struck three or four S-300 sites, including one at the Imam Khomeini International Airport near Tehran,” the ISW adds.
The think tank states that at least some of the air defense sites targeted were protecting critical energy infrastructure in western and southwestern Iran and identifies sites being hit at the Abadan oil refinery, the Bandar Imam Khomeini energy complex and port, and the Tang-eh Bijar gas field.
“Degrading the air defenses around these sites could leave them more vulnerable to future strikes,” ISW contends.
While the S-300 has been steadily updated since it was first introduced by the Soviet Union in the late 1970s, it is now an aging system and one that has proven vulnerable in Ukraine. Nevertheless, it remains a significant threat, especially if used as part of a layered air defense system, and these surface-to-air missile systems were the most capable of their kind available to Iran.
Tehran was the recipient of one of the more modern iterations of the S-300, namely the S-300PMU-2 Favorit (known to NATO as the SA-20B Gargoyle), which was introduced in 1997 and which has improved anti-ballistic missile capabilities. It should be noted that, over the years the IAF has trained against the specific S-300 threat in several multinational air exercises, making use of S-300PMU-1 systems operated by Greece and S-300s in the U.S., and refining its tactics in the process.
Replacement of Iran’s S-300s, at least in the near term, is hardly straightforward. Russia currently needs as much air defense equipment as it can produce, for the war in Ukraine, so the transfer of systems from its own stocks to Tehran seems less realistic. There’s also likely to be a long wait for new-production Russian air defense systems in the same class, like the more capable S-400. One option might be the deployment of one or two Russian batteries, as has happened before in Syria, but this would be more symbolic than anything else, and it is still less likely due to the strain on Russia’s own air defenses.
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