What's piqued our interest is that the powering up America theme to power AI data centers and other electrification trends, such as EVs and onshoring manufacturing (as outlined in "The Next AI Trade"), has led to shortages and price increases in the transformer market.
"Distribution transformers are a bedrock component of our energy infrastructure," National Renewable Energy Laboratory researcher Killian McKenna said, who was recently quoted by PV Magazine.
McKenna pointed out, "But utilities needing to add or replace them are currently facing high prices and long wait times due to supply chain shortages. This has the potential to affect energy accessibility, reliability, affordability—everything."
Other reasons for the transformer shortages besides power grid upgrades include raw material sourcing problems, pandemic-related supply chain woes and backlogs, labor constraints, shipping issues, and geopolitical tensions.
Given all of this, Jesse D. Jenkins, an assistant professor and macro-energy systems engineering and policy expert at Princeton University, responded to the dire situation of a grid apocalypse playing out in the Southeast US:
"This is devastating. We do NOT have 360 substations worth of transformers and other electrical equipment sitting in stockpiles waiting to be deployed. It could take a very long time to restore power to everyone. Are we facing a Hurricane Maria-type impact on grid infrastructure?"
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