JNS.ORG
The events this week in Lebanon sound like they were taken out of a James Bond movie, as sabotaged pagers used by Hezbollah exploded simultaneously across the country, killing 12 and injuring some 3,000 people, the vast majority of whom were members of the terror organization.
This was followed up with an additional attack the next day that killed 20 and injured another 450 as hand-held walkie-talkies being used as backups also exploded. These devices were part of the terror group's emergency communications systems that were supposed to be used during a conflict with the Israel Defense Forces.
Experts believe that Israeli security apparatuses were able to access Hezbollah's supply chain, plant the explosives and wait for an opportune time to detonate the devices remotely. This represents an unprecedented breach of Hezbollah's communication system and a reminder of Israel's advanced technological capabilities, which the terror group is well aware of.
It appears that Israel had access to more than just communication devices. Its decision to detonate the sabotaged pager devices was a response to Hezbollah's attempt to assassinate the former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Aviv Kochavi, foiled just days ago. Hezbollah, on its part, was quick to point to Israel as the perpetrator of the large-scale attack and vowed to retaliate.
According to Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, former head of IDF Military Intelligence's Research and Assessment Division and a senior research fellow at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, the ball is now in Hezbollah's court.
"Based on that, we'll see how this moves forward," said Kuperwasser, who is also a senior research fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs.
Hezbollah's range of options ranges from the minor all the way up to a large-scale attack on Israel, he said, adding that Israel is prepared for all scenarios.
If a full-scale war does break out, he said, Israel will now be in an improved starting position to create a new reality in southern Lebanon.
A large-scale Hezbollah attack "could give Israel justification for an operation" in Southern Lebanon, he said. He noted however that "Israel can do this without any further justification, since Hezbollah has been attacking northern Israel without stop."
Still, he assessed, a broad Hezbollah attack in response to an incident for which Israel maintained deniability could provide clearer justification for an Israeli operation in southern Lebanon.
Rami Igra, a former senior official with Israel's Mossad intelligence agency, told JNS that if Israel was involved in the incident, "What's important is where this leads. Is it another round in the ping-pong game between Israel and Hezbollah--and if so it is worthless--or a prelude to a more significant confrontation?"
Igra emphasized that Hezbollah's military-terrorist capacity remains largely intact. "Nothing significant has happened to Hezbollah's capability vis-a-vis the 150,000 missiles and Radwan forces on the Israeli border," he argued. Igra warned that failing to address the Hezbollah threat now could lead to greater consequences down the road. "The lesson from Oct. 7 shows that when we fail to deal with a threat today, we will pay a much higher price down the line," he said.
Israel cannot afford to allow Hezbollah to continue unchecked, he added.
"Would a war in the north be simple? It seems not, but if we do not deal with it today, we will deal with it tomorrow, and what we do not pay today, we will pay double tomorrow," he said. "I very much hope this was the beginning and not the end."
The former naval officer also emphasized that Hezbollah's senior command structure had likely been affected by the recent events.
"Probably what is happening now in Hezbollah is that all the command structure from, let's say, the rank of lieutenant colonel in a regular military to the generals, are severely wounded; some of them are already dead," he said. This, he added, presents a potential opening for Israeli military action, though he expressed doubt that Israel would seek to escalate the situation.
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