Ron Ben-Yishai
Hezbollah began its response early, even before Nasrallah's fate became clear, and it is expected to intensify; how Iran will react? A strategic shift could potentially lead to an end to the war
Imagery from Beirut’s Dahieh district on Friday night suggests that Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah’s command center employed high-powered bunker-busting bombs weighing nearly a ton each, and in significant quantities.
These bombs are believed to be capable of penetrating several feet of concrete and tens of feet of earth. The strikes were spread across thousands of square feet, both above and below ground, making it difficult to determine whether Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah was present and, if so, whether he was killed or injured.
Such bombs cause severe damage to targets, making identification of casualties extremely challenging. The intensity of the blast, combined with the debris and heat generated, complicates efforts to confirm the number of people affected, especially when the target is buried under massive layers of rubble.
If Nasrallah was not in the attacked location, it is likely Hezbollah would have released evidence or a statement. However, their silence suggests uncertainty.
A similar situation occurred in Gaza last July when Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif was killed in a powerful strike while briefly emerging from a tunnel. It took several days to confirm the outcome, even though the attack was on a small building above ground.
The question at hand is how this strike will impact Hezbollah and Israel. Hezbollah is a political organization with a formidable military wing of 30,000 to 50,000 operatives and an arsenal that includes rockets, missiles, cruise missiles and drones, surpassing the capabilities of many countries, including European powers.
In the past nine days, Israel has significantly weakened Hezbollah’s senior and mid-level command through targeted strikes. According to foreign reports, the pager attack has also disrupted lower ranks responsible for operating weapon systems.
However, these actions have not rendered Hezbollah inoperative. The group still possesses long-range rockets and precision-guided missiles. Even if top leaders were eliminated, local commanders could still independently launch missiles and drones at Israel, driven by high motivation and potentially adopting a "scorched earth" strategy. This has prompted Israeli officials to urge maximum vigilance and readiness to seek shelter for extended periods.
Israeli Air Force jets are patrolling over Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley to ensure that any local Hezbollah commander attempting to launch heavy or precision-guided missiles at Israel will be swiftly eliminated.
Iran can't look away
The strategic consequences of the strike in Beirut hinge on whether or not Nasrallah survived. Analysts suggest that Iran, which has supplied Hezbollah with its arsenal of heavy and precision-guided missiles, will likely be involved in any response to preserve the group’s strategic capabilities and counter a potential Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities.
Experts anticipate a robust Iranian response, which could involve direct attacks from Iran or through proxy militias in Iraq and Syria loyal to the mullahs. This scenario suggests that Iran may instruct the remaining Hezbollah commanders in Lebanon to coordinate with Tehran in planning a retaliatory strike, potentially leading to a significant escalation in the region.
Nasrallah’s potential death could significantly impact Lebanon’s internal political dynamics, with implications for Israel. If confirmed, the Shiite community would be left with one key leader of Nasrallah’s stature: Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese Parliament and head of the Shiite Amal Movement, from which the more radical Hezbollah emerged.
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