Great Replacement Job Shock:

Great Replacement Job Shock: 1.3 Million Native-Born Americans Just Lost Their Jobs

TYLER DURDEN

At the start of the year, many months after we first pointed out that the biggest untold story of the US labor market was the "great replacement" of native born workers with foreign-born workers (most of whom we subsequently learned were illegal aliens), we asked how is it, that the ongoing replacement (because that's what it is) of US workers is "not the biggest political talking point right now" considering that "since October 2019, native-born US workers have lost 1.4 million jobs; over the same period foreign-born workers have gained 3 million jobs"

Nine months later, we are delighted to see that our relentless efforts to bring attention to this critical topic finally worked, and the continued replacement of native-born workers with immigrants and illegal aliens was finally the biggest political and media talking point, as demonstrated by such articles as "How Immigration Remade the U.S. Labor Force" by the WSJ and "Without Immigrants, US Working-Age Population Would Shrink" from Bloomberg, both of which are an extension of the latest and greatest narrative, first spawned by Fed chair Powell, and then picked up by Goldman, which came down to the following: you can have (record) illegal immigration, or you can have even more (breakneck) inflation. So don't be angry, and just accept the roving gangs of Venezuelan murderers in your neighborhood, if you know what's good for you and if you want to keep prices low (the same prices which are only high because the government decided to inject $20 trillion in fiscal stimmies in the past 4 years).

Which brings us to today's jobs report... where the native vs foreign-born debate just exploded!

As we discussed earlier, superficially the August payrolls report was a mixed bag. On one hand, it was disappointing in that the payrolls print came in softer than expected, but was a big bounce from sharply downward revised June and July prints. On the other hand, the unemployment rate did drop from the Sahm Rule's recession trigger level of 4.3% to 4.2%, and effectively eliminated the clear cut case for a 50bps rate cut, especially since the Household survey was not only far stronger than the Establishment survey, but indicated the biggest increase in employment since March.

And while the quality of job gains in the past year has clearly been catastrophic - a necessary condition to give the impression that headline, or quantiative, job growth was strong -  there was a very clear reason for that, and it goes back to what we have been pounding the table on in the past: the reason is the continued replacement of native-born workers with immigrants (some legal but mostly illegal). And as the following chart shows, it is anything but a theory: it is cold hard fact. 

Presenting exhibit A: the number of native-born vs foreign-born workers in August.

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