The elimination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, presumably by Israel, contains a shattering double message. First to Iran: that the IDF can strike where, when and against whomever it wants inside their country. Second to Hamas: that their leaders are no longer safe anywhere in the world and never will be.
The devastating blow in Iran’s capital at the time of the new president’s inauguration redoubles previous messages delivered to the ayatollahs. For example, they were humiliated when Israel repelled hundreds of missiles and drones fired into the country on April 14.
Insult was added to injury when Israel struck back at the most heavily defended place in Iran, Isfahan, the center of the Islamic Republic's nuclear weapons program. Tehran’s forces were unable to even detect, let alone shoot down, Israel’s missiles.
We will have to see the extent to which Haniyeh’s killing deters Iranian belligerence. But one thing is certain: This further sign of impotence will encourage the growing dissent inside Iran against a repressive regime that has destroyed the country’s economy while investing so much in imperialist aggression across the region. Whatever their response now, the ayatollahs can’t afford to risk much more humiliation.
For Hamas, a leading Iranian proxy, Israel’s action will resound throughout what is left of the movement. Hamas in Gaza is already on its knees, with thousands of terrorists killed and captured, many miles of tunnels blown up and munitions seized and destroyed. It is no longer able to operate as a coherent military organization and its supply lines from Egypt have been cut. The terrorist leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, has been forced into survival mode. His military lieutenant, Mohammed Deif, was killed in an Israeli air strike earlier this month that was a tremendous blow to the organization. I saw for myself last week inside Gaza the extent to which the IDF has now secured freedom of operations everywhere.
The same night Haniyeh was taken out, Israel eliminated Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s military commander and number two to Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, in Beirut. Shukr was behind the massacre of 12 children in Majdal Shams last weekend, the firing of thousands of missiles and drones into northern Israel since October 7 and many other violent attacks on Israel and Israelis.
These leaders will be quickly replaced, but their deaths will undermine the capability of their terror armies, at least in the short to medium term. Both had long pedigrees in terror. Shukr was closely involved in the Hezbollah suicide bombing in Beirut in 1983 that killed 241 American servicemen. Haniyeh joined Hamas when it was formed in the late 1980s. Much of their effectiveness is built on long-established personal networks both within their organizations and internationally. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has still not fully recovered from the killing of its Quds Force commander, Qasem Soleimani, by a drone strike ordered by former president Donald Trump four years ago.
Demonstrable strength matters above most other things in this region where Israel is surrounded by terrorist enemies to whom weakness is always a provocation. A drone attack on Tel Aviv by Iran’s Houthi proxies in Yemen was met with massive Israeli airstrikes against their logistic infrastructure in Hudaydah Port. That had much greater significance than just disrupting Iranian weapons supply lines into Yemen. Trade through the port is also fundamental in financing the Houthis’ terror apparatus and for their hold over the country. Hudaydah also destroyed the Houthis image of invincibility in the region, which was leading to significant concessions from some of their opponents. Whether that attack will rein-in their aggression remains to be seen, but they will certainly be forced to exercise much greater caution in balancing what action they can now afford to take.
The Abraham Accords, under which Israel normalized relations with four Arab states in 2020 and 2021, were achieved because their leaders saw Israel as a dependable bulwark against Iran, the number one threat to most countries in the region. Israeli strength had become increasingly important in the wake of Barak Obama’s policies of appeasing and empowering Iran, which Arab leaders looked upon with despair.
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