Iran's hidden hand in Lebanon:

Iran's hidden hand in Lebanon: what does Hezbollah really want?

Smadar Perry

When Israel-Hamas war began, Hezbollah planned to stay out, but Iran directed Nasrallah to open another front on October 8; Tehran now forbids Hezbollah from withdrawing beyond the Litani River, seeing attrition without full-scale war as ideal.

One of the first actions taken by Iran's new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, was to send a letter of encouragement to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The president in Tehran pledged, "Our support continues," "We will continue to support Lebanese resistance" and "We will continue to support Hezbollah against the Zionist regime."

So, why did the newly inaugurated president bother to send this message to Hezbollah, which was also broadcast by Iranian media? It is likely that behind the scenes, there was a decision to emphasize Iran's commitment to Nasrallah and Hezbollah's leaders, given the election of a reformist president.

According to a recent report by Asharq Al-Awsat, senior Hezbollah officials initially planned to stay on the sidelines of the war between the IDF and Hamas, offering only verbal support to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. However, the office of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei instructed Hezbollah to open a symbolic front against Israel as early as October 8.

Currently, Tehran strictly forbids Hezbollah from withdrawing its forces beyond the Litani River. Despite Israel's demands, Iran has ordered Hezbollah not to comply. This stance was evident when U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein left Lebanon empty-handed once again.

From Iran and Hezbollah's perspectives, the situation of attrition without a full-scale war, which has led Israelis in the north to flee their homes, is the ideal scenario. Khamenei's office does not believe in Hezbollah's ability to win an all-out war. Hezbollah also favors this war of attrition, as the displacement of southern Lebanese residents allows them to convert civilian homes into weapon and ammunition storage, disguising their fighters as civilians.

It remains unclear how long this tenuous situation will last. Despite the noise and threats, Israel is neither willing nor able to declare an all-out war on Lebanon. Meanwhile, Hezbollah and Iran remain vigilant, anticipating that a potential change in the Israeli government might result in a less adventurous and more moderate administration.