Update(1838ET): Monitors cited in AFP report the death toll from Monday's Israeli air strike on the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus has risen to 11. "The death toll from the Israeli strikes on the Iranian embassy annex has risen to 11: eight Iranians, two Syrians and one Lebanese -- all of them fighters, none of them civilians," AFP quoted the war monitor as saying.
Regional and international reaction came hours later, with Lebanese Hezbollah -- a close ally of Iran -- vowing that Israel will be "punished" for the attack.
As we detailed earlier (below), several top IRGC commanders were killed in the strike at a moment a high-level military meeting was taking place.
Russia's Foreign Ministry reacted as follows: "We strongly condemn this attack on the Iranian consular office in Syria. We consider any attacks on diplomatic and consular facilities, the inviolability of which is guaranteed by the relevant Vienna Conventions, to be categorically unacceptable."
Among the slain in Monday's attack was Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a top commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), who reportedly oversaw Quds Forces operations in Syria and Lebanon. Clearly Israeli's intelligence capabilities are significant regarding Iranian movements and operations inside Syria, given Israel clearly knew the where and when of the top level meeting.
A strike like this -- against an embassy which is supposed to be 'protected' by international diplomatic norms upheld by the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations -- is somewhat unprecedented and so marks a massive escalation by Israel.
David Asher, a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute and former senior State Department official under the Trump administration had this to say in terms of what's likely to come next:
"This is a huge strike against Iran’s Qods Force. Expect to see Iranian missile retaliation directly against Israel. Things are moving beyond proxy war into direct conflict. Crude prices should make a decisive move higher on macro risk," he told ZeroHedge.
Others are currently speculating that Israel may be trying to provoke a war with Iran to get the US directly involved on its side. The Hezbollah situation along Israel's northern border continues to be at crisis levels, given that an estimated 80,000 Israeli citizens remain evacuated from their homes.
Recent months have seen Israeli officials float a bold plan for a US-enforced 'buffer zone' which would remove Hezbollah from near the Israeli border. While the plan calls for an international peacekeeping force, those troops would essentially become an occupying force in the eyes of Hezbollah and the Iranians. But Israel likely perceives that it needs full Washington support and military backing if it were to pursue a final 'end all' battle with Hezbollah, which would certainly collapse all of Lebanon into chaos and crisis. Without doubt, the Netanyahu coalition government wants to see regime change in Tehran as well.
Iran did not uphold the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations for 444 days sacking the American embassy and taking hostages.
ReplyDelete