Analysis of the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS) shows that the total foreign-born or immigrant population (legal and illegal) hit a new record high of 51.4 million in February 2024 — an increase of 6.4 million since President Biden took office. At 15.5 percent, the foreign-born share is also a new record in American history. Data such as border encounters and “got-aways” are clearly important, but they do not measure the number of immigrants actually living in the U.S., which is what ultimately determines the impact on the country. The enormous scale of immigration over the past three years has implications for nearly every aspect of American society, including public coffers, the labor market, schools, hospitals, and the balance of political power, to say nothing of whether we can assimilate this many people.
Among the findings:
- In February 2024, the foreign-born population in the United States hit a new high of 51.4 million and 15.5 percent of the U.S. population — surpassing all prior records.
- The foreign-born share of the U.S. population has more than tripled since 1970, nearly doubled since 1990, and is up 40 percent just since 2000.
- Since President Biden took office in January 2021, the foreign-born population has grown by 6.4 million — larger than the individual populations of 33 states.
- Growth in the foreign-born population is being driven primarily by immigration from Latin America, which has grown 4.2 million since January 2021, with South and Central America up 1.7 million and 1.4 million, respectively. Also, immigration from the Indian subcontinent is up 819,000 and from the Middle East is up 654,000.
- At 172,000 a month, the average increase in the foreign-born under President Biden is four times the 42,000 average monthly increase under Trump before Covid-19 hit and double the 68,000 average under Obama.
- If current trends continue, the foreign-born population will reach nearly 60 million and 17.5 percent of the U.S. population by the end of a second Biden term — both figures would be without any precedent in American history.
- We preliminarily estimate that more than half (3.7 million) of the 6.4 million increase in the foreign-born population since January 2021 is likely due to illegal immigration. If adjusted for those missed by the survey, the increase is larger.
- The 6.4 million increase overall and the 3.7 million possible increase in illegal immigrants are both net figures. The number of new arrivals was higher, but was offset by outmigration and natural mortality among the foreign-born already here.
- While a large share of the recent growth in the foreign-born population is due to illegal immigration, legal immigrants still account for roughly three-fourths of the total foreign-born population.
- Due in part to the illegal influx, the education level of new arrivals has declined. Of working-age (18-64) adults who arrived in the two years prior to February of this year, 44 percent had no education beyond high school, compared to 29 percent in 2018.
- The scale of immigration is so high that it appears to have made the Census Bureau population projections, published in November of last year, obsolete. The bureau projected that the foreign-born share would not reach 15.5 percent until 2039.
- In February 2024, the 31 million immigrant workers accounted for 19.3 percent of workers — both new record highs. Compared to February 2020, right before Covid, the number of immigrant workers is up 3.3 million, while the number U.S.-born workers is down by one million.
- The immigrant workers have made the nation’s aggregate GDP several hundred billion dollars larger. However, per-person GDP, not aggregate GDP, determines the standard of living. Immigration tends to lower per-person GDP because it causes the population to grow faster than the economy.
Read the full detailed report here.
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