There is another problem: the attrition of officers. Western military personnel cannot replace this crucial resource — they can only be used to service technically complicated weapons systems such as air defence or long-range artillery. Along the line of contact, foreign officers are more likely to interfere due to their ignorance of the language and misunderstanding of the mentality of the [Ukrainian] subordinates.
There are other factors weakening the Ukrainian defence, but they are not directly related to military operations. For example, the Western sponsors are really concerned about the corruption of the Ukrainian leadership. The inspections and audits which are taking place in Kiev on this issue right now are preventing Ukraine from building new defensive lines swiftly enough.
Another non-military factor: political discord among the various factions of the Ukrainian authorities. The premonition of defeat is triggering a drop in morale, not only in the troops, but also in the elites.
All this in general creates a strategic opportunity for Russia to seriously change the situation on the line of contact.
Moreover, we are talking about such a breakthrough that will not stop in just two or three days at the next defensive line, but will lead inevitably, precisely, to the collapse of the front. This is exactly what the efforts of the Russian Armed Forces are now aimed at, probing for the weaknesses in Ukrainian defensive positions.
If the comedian Zelensky manages to remove General Zaluzhny and replace him with Intel Chief Budanov we can expect more chaos among Ukrainian forces facing off against Russia. I am not suggesting that Zaluzhny is a great military leader or strategist, but he does understand the complexity of running a combined arms military operation. Budanov does not and will not have time to learn the ropes.
Ukraine confronts two deficits that cannot be remedied for at least one year — 1) lack of trained manpower and 2) lack of ammunition, air defense and reliable combat vehicles. Russia enjoys a clear tactical advantage on both counts.
Helmer succinctly describes Russia’s plan for the near term:
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