The bar for ‘plausibility’ in the initial proceedings is quite low, experts warn, while ministers’ inflammatory statements enabled South Africa to allege Israel has genocidal intent
Israel, on Thursday, will for the first time in its history find itself in the dock in the International Court of Justice in The Hague — charged with genocide.
Although the idea that Israel is committing genocide in the war in Gaza, meaning intentionally murdering Palestinian civilians, might seem outlandish to some, the allegations are extremely serious and even an interim ruling against Israel could have a severe impact on its international status and global reputation, with potentially dire diplomatic and political consequences.
A ruling against Israel could even affect the ongoing conduct of the war against the Hamas terror group’s regime in Gaza.
The application to the ICJ against Israel by South Africa alleges that Israel has violated the Genocide Convention, to which it is a signatory. It cites the large number of Palestinian civilians killed during the war, and the severely reduced access to food, water, and medical care of the Gazan population, which South Africa alleges are the result of a planned Israeli effort to commit genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza.
Critically, the numerous inflammatory statements made by Israel government ministers about Palestinians in Gaza have given South Africa a platform to allege that the State of Israel has the intent to commit genocide, a crucial aspect of any genocide charges.
Although a final ruling will likely take years, South Africa has requested the court issue provisional orders against Israel that could range from demanding a total and immediate ceasefire — which Israel and the US firmly oppose because Hamas has yet to dismantled — to more moderate orders such as insisting that more humanitarian aid be allowed in.
But it would be the interim ruling itself, that there is even plausibility to South Africa’s allegations, that would be the most damaging to Israel’s standing.
Critically for Israel, the bar to establish plausibility of genocidal actions is much lower than a final definitive determination, and this puts the Jewish state in significant potential peril. For a start, it would certainly be more challenging for the US, or any other country inclined to stand with Israel, to do so if the ICJ determines the country might be committing genocide.
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