A few days ago an analysis piece appeared on the North Korea research website 38North with the headline asking the question: “Is Kim Jong un preparing for war?”
38North is a respected source of analysis and does not push an agenda or sensationalism. This particular piece was authored by Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker, who are also not known to be alarmist.
Their argument is as follows: North Korea has attempted to pursue a process of normalization with the US, particularly during the Donald Trump administration in 2018-2019, and failed after Trump walked out on the February 2019 meeting in Hanoi. After that effort failed, Pyongyang has now effectively “given up.” It believes it has no options left, and has continued developing its nuclear program and increasingly hardening its position, emboldened by the geopolitical context in respect to Russia and China.
It might be noted early on that this assessment does not give “hard” evidence of North Korea pursuing such a path, and relies only on changes in Pyongyang’s rhetoric to argue that the DPRK’s claims are not “bluster” but a true reflection of its strategic position. Many things have changed since 2019 that should be taken into consideration: the Biden administration has no interest in negotiating with North Korea, a hostile Presidency has came to power in Seoul under Yoon Suk-yeol, who is pro-Japan and has abandoned the reconciliatory approach of Moon Jae-in, while the US’ confrontation against both Russia and China has given the DPRK new options to try and subvert the isolation it experienced during the era of American unipolarity.
Because of this, the US has completely lost its ability to hold North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs to account, with new sanctions now being blocked at the UN by Moscow and Beijing, and existing ones not enforced. North Korea is increasingly capable of hitting the American homeland with ICBMs. This is also making unilateral, pre-emptive military action by the US against the DPRK an increasingly unrealistic prospect. But why would this enable Kim Jong-un to pursue a war of choice against South Korea and, should he start one, would he truly have a chance of winning it?
North Korea’s entire diplomatic strategy from the 1950s onwards has always been to exert maximum leverage for itself as a small country, by creating crisis. This is the Juche ideology’s ultimate focus on independence and sovereignty at all costs, even to its own population. To this end, the DPRK has always been provocative, whether it be killing US soldiers with axes, capturing the US spy ship USS Pueblo, shelling South Korean islands indiscriminately or even sinking a South Korean warship during an exercise. In doing so it aims to force the hands of not only its enemies but also of those who are friendly to it.
Indeed, even though Kim Il-sung started the Korean war in 1950 and subsequently faced defeat from the US and its allies, China still saved him – and back then it was much weaker than it is now. So, would Kim Jong-un fancy his chances in unleashing a full-scale war again on the Korean peninsula on the premise China would be forced to intervene? That isn’t beyond the realm of possibility.
So where does this leave the DPRK? It leaves Kim Jong-un with a window of time to achieve a series of geopolitical objectives and goals, in a context which is favorable to him, and therein raises the prospect of a serious escalation of tensions in some way.
No comments:
Post a Comment