Putin and Medvedev recently made statements that took an expansive view of what “Russian lands” in Ukraine amounted to. At least as far as Putin is concerned, what he said at the November 3 meeting with members of the Civic Chamber is, philosophically, not all that different than the sort of historical observations Putin had made before.
Nevertheless, both Ukrainian Pravada and Alexander Mercouris regarded the Putin remarks as potentially significant, and Medvedev reiterating them would seem to confirm that take. And both suggested that Kiev might wind up as part of Russia.
Former Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev: "NATO must admit that Odessa, Nikolaev, Kiev, and practically everything else is not Ukraine at all"
He posted on his Telegram: "Europe is boiling.
Under the guise of a lot of Middle Eastern blood, some current and former NATO officials are carefully spreading new ideas about Ukraine. Like "we need to accept it into the Alliance, but without Crimea and Donbass". Therefore, these territories are definitely no longer Ukraine in their understanding.
Not bad, but it's important to go further. We must admit that Odessa, Nikolaev, Kiev, and practically everything else is not Ukraine at all.
After this, there are only three steps to admit the obvious:
◦ Zelensky, who does not go to the elections, is NOT a president, but a usurper.
◦ The Ukrainian language is NOT a language, but a dialect.
◦ Ukraine is NOT a country, but artificially collected territories.
What then should be accepted into NATO, you ask? Well, you can accept the city of Lemberg with its surroundings (still the Lvov region), if they really insist on it there.
Or even aim for more, once again expanding the criteria for membership in the Alliance. Take and invite Israel there along with Palestine, turning eternal enemies into allies. And in addition to them - Afghanistan. It wasn't for nothing that the NATO members sat there for twenty years. Then enlightened democracy in the Anglo-Saxon style will reign in the Middle East. And complete happiness will come".
Regardless of whether these remarks represent a meaningful shift, they serve as a reminder that Russia is on track to take a maximalist stance in terms of territorial acquisition. For instance, even Russia-friendly commentators wondered if Russia would take Odessa. Most now seem to see that as a given and are adding more sections of Ukraine as potential acquisitions. But as we flagged from the very outset, Russia could lose the peace by not coming up with a good solution as to what to do about Western Ukraine.
So does the renewed talk about Ukraine being an artificial construct carved out of Russia, and of Ancient Rus? Or is this just posturing, to make those paying attention less unhappy about the endgame, to act as if Russia has serious designs on parts of Western Ukraine so that when Russia integrates less into Russia, that the West can claim a face saving success?
Ukraine’s Appallingly Poor Prospects
Things are so bad it is hard to know where to begin.
Big Serge recently posted a fine, detailed account of why it was vanishingly unlikely that Ukraine would achieve its aims of pushing Russia back to Ukraine’s 1991 borders. Admittedly, hindsight is 20/20. At the start of the war, many thought, including many in Russia, that the shock and awe sanctions would cripple Russia, ideally lead to Putin’s ouster or at least severely destabilize Russian leadership, and undermine industrial, particularly military, output. The West also believed what is now clear was its own nonsense, that Russia had a poorly armed and led military, when it was was the US and NATO that had optimized their forces to fight insurgents, and had gotten very good at building super expensive, fussy weapons systems that didn’t necessarily perform all that well when tested. Even worse, it still has not been adequately acknowledged that Russia is ahead in many critical categories, such as air defense, hypersonic missiles, and signal jamming.
What is striking about the current state of play is not simply that Ukraine is losing the war with Russia, and it’s just a matter of time before Russia dictates terms, but that the Ukraine government is acting in ways that benefits the Russian military, to the destruction of what is left of its society and economy.
Militarily, Ukraine is approaching a catastrophic condition. That does not mean a collapse is imminent; key variables include whether the Ukraine military leadership revolts against Zelensky and how hard Russia pushes into growing Ukraine weakness. Russia may prefer to go slowly (mind you, it is making a concerted effort to crack the well fortified Avdiivka1), not just to reduce losses of its troops, but also to more throughly bleed out Ukraine and give the West time to adjust psychologically to Ukraine’s prostration.
Another factor that bears repeating is that Russia knows well this is a war against NATO.
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