Is Afghanistan II Coming?

Afghanistan II?

One Biden administration official says that Ukraine has around six to seven weeks of combat left before its offensive culminates. . . . “If you look at the battlefield in five years’ time, it could look broadly similar,” says a senior American intelligence official, emphasising that the quality of both Russian and Ukrainian forces is declining over time.

The ironically named “intelligence official” reveals gross ignorance about Russia and its capabilities. The Russian Army is stronger and larger today than it was 18 months ago. The Russian defense industry is operating at levels unheard of in 2022 and producing enormous volumes of drones, artillery shells, cruise missiles, tanks, vehicles and regular ammunition. None of that is true for Ukraine. Missing this kind of data point (or points) explains why you can have an intelligence failure. There is a built in assumption that Russia will be in stasis for the next 18 months. That ain’t going to happen.

The big take away for me from Maul’s interview (or interviews) is that the Biden Administration completely discounts the possibility of a Russian battlefield victory and a Ukrainian collapse. If Ukraine does collapse (which I think is likely) we will witness Afghanistan II — which means the United States once again is caught unawares by a rapid deterioration and will scramble desperately to come up with a Plan B. By then it will be too late.

I think the key variable that will determine the Russian military’s course of action in the coming months in Ukraine is the status of Western ISR. As long as the U.S. and NATO continue to supply Ukraine with floods of ISR data, which means knowing roughly the location and size of Russian forces along the line of contact, I do not think Russia will launch any big movement offensives. A large scale maneuver offensive would require assembling a concentration of troops that would be easily spotted by ISR and then targeted for attack. As long as Western ISR remains intact Russia is opting to disperse forces and attrit the Ukrainians without employing World War I tactics of human wave assaults across open fields.

Unless Russia can come up with a way to deceive Western ISR, it is unlikely to assemble a Division size element that could deliver a decisive blow in some sector of the line of contact. This is what distinguishes a Special Military Operation from a war footing. If Russia decides to attack Western ISR assets that will be a sure sign of a major, escalatory shift in the Russian military’s plans and objectives.