The greater story here is that over 90% of the death and destruction that’s occurred in Ukraine over the past 18 months would likely have been avoided if Russia and Ukraine were allowed to continue negotiating last April.
But that wasn’t in the West’s interests. They wanted to weaken Russia by dragging it into a long and bloody conflict with their Ukrainian proxy. They didn’t care how many Ukrainians had to die along the way.
Well, the war has now escalated to the largest and most deadly land war in Europe since World War II.
That escalation includes deliveries by the U.S. and other NATO members to the Armed Forces of Ukraine of advanced weaponry including Patriot anti-aircraft batteries, HIMARS mobile precision missile launchers, drones, Leopard tanks, Challenger tanks, Bradley Fighting Vehicles, Storm Shadow cruise missiles and much more.
Russia has responded by increasing its troops in Ukraine to perhaps 500,000 (the exact number is secret) and deploying GPS jamming devices to negate the West’s advanced weaponry that relies on GPS guidance, hypersonic missiles (that can defeat the West’s air defenses), drones, heavy use of land mines and its highly effective S-400 anti-aircraft missiles.
The danger in Ukraine is not just the obvious one of escalation. The danger is that both sides (Russia versus NATO) are nuclear powers. Someone’s going to have to climb down from the escalation ladder at some point, or the logic of escalation will ultimately place the U.S. and Russia into direct conflict.
Will the escalation end soon? Not likely. The U.S. is on the verge of adopting a new treaty called the Black Sea Security Act.
A glance at a map shows the Black Sea is surrounded by Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russia and Georgia. Russia and Ukraine are the main combatants. Georgia is under the thumb of Russia. Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria are all NATO members.
Not every NATO member will necessarily adopt the provisions of the Black Sea treaty. But if the U.S. does, it will set up a NATO versus Russia confrontation in the Black Sea itself.
This could involve using Romanian ports and NATO vessels to attack Russian navy ships in the Black Sea in the name of freedom of navigation. That’s not as unrealistic as you might think. Of course, the real purpose is to facilitate arms shipments to Ukraine via the Bosporus and the Black Sea.
This is one more step on the road to escalation and eventual nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia over Ukraine. Is anyone paying attention?
The Russians certainly are.
Not farfetched. The obsolete German battleship Schleswig-Holstein played an important role at the outbreak of the Second World War. The ship moored in the Baltic Seaport of Gdańsk under false pretences, and then, in the early morning of 1 September 1939, proceeded to bombard the Polish defensive positions on the Westerplatte Peninsula: the first shots of the Second World War.
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