Sputnik
There are contradictory reports emerging from the Zaporozhye battlefield, with Ukrainian forces attempting to make a breakthrough near the village of Rabotino.
While the fog of war prevents a definitive account at this juncture of what is transpiring in and around Rabotino, one thing is for certain—this isn’t Ukraine’s first attempt to breach the Russian defenses there and, if they have indeed failed, this will not be their last.
Persistence best describes what is unfolding on the battlefields in what Russia now calls “New Russia”—suicidal forays by Ukrainian forces into the prepared defensive positions of their Russian opponents which, to date, have achieved little more than dead bodies and destroyed vehicles.
Persistence, as the case of Robert the Bruce shows, can—and often does—prevail in the face of adversity. When the current Ukrainian counteroffensive was first conceived, back in the fall of 2022, Ukraine was coming off a case study in persistence that had, in fact, paid off—a successful counteroffensive that had succeeded in pushing Russian forces out of the Kharkov region, and which recaptured the right bank of Kherson Oblast, including the city of Kherson. This success was facilitated by the provision by NATO of tens of billions of dollars’ worth of military equipment and training, along with operational planning support informed by NATO intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance resources.
When the fall counteroffensive ran its course, the Ukrainian’s and their NATO masters turned to the task of building a new Ukrainian army to replace the one that had shed its blood in Kharkov and Kherson, a new Ukrainian army which would seek to resume offensive operations in the spring of 2023.
The Ukrainian attack began on June 8, 2023, striking towards the Russian defenses in and around the village of Rabotino. Within hours it was clear to all involved that the expectations of the Ukrainian and NATO commanders did not match the reality on the ground—the Russian soldiers manning the Rabotino defenses held fast, a by-product of good training, outstanding leadership, sound tactics, and adequate equipment. The Ukrainians, on the other hand, failed dismally, littering the battlefield with burned out Bradley IFV’s and Leopard MBT’s, and the bodies of Ukrainian soldiers. Successive attacks over the course of the proceeding days achieved similar results—the Russian’s held fast, while the Ukrainians died.
The failure of the Ukrainian drive on Melitopol was a huge embarrassment for both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his NATO partners when they gathered in Vilnius, Lithuania, for the NATO Summit convened there from July 11-12. In the finger-pointing and recrimination that ensued, Ukraine lambasted the fact that it had been asked to carry out a difficult military task with insufficient resources, specifically citing the lack of F-16 fighters (despite the fact that General Zaluzhny had specifically excluded the F-16’s from the list of equipment he said he needed to successfully attack Melitopol.)
Meanwhile, NATO put the blame for the failed offensive squarely on the shoulders of Ukrainian officers who had failed to employ properly the tactics they had been taught in Grafenwoehr. A leaked German intelligence report highlighted the shift by Ukraine away from massed armor attacks to smaller infantry-driven assaults as representing a total departure from the combined arms operations taught by NATO. What the German report failed to address is the reality that NATO tried to take operational art that requires months, if not years, to master, and squeeze it into training that lasted only a few weeks.
Moreover, the Vilnius Summit exposed the reality of a growing Ukraine fatigue amongst the NATO partners, with several beginning to question their ability to provide open-ended support. Ukraine needs to demonstrate a will and ability to prevail against Russia, many western observers believe, or else the west will have no choice but to begin seeking a diplomatic off-ramp from the war. Such a negotiated settlement could compel Ukraine into accepting the loss of territory currently claimed by Russia as part of the conditions, something that is anathema to the Zelensky government.
What Zelensky, Zaluzhny, and the Ukrainian military is undertaking on the ground around the village of Rabotino is, to put it mildly, foolish. The desire to take Melitopol has become a Holy Grail for Zelensky, one that will cost Ukraine dearly, both in terms of the lives squandered on the battlefield, but also by the geopolitical consequences of extending a fight Ukraine cannot win, both in terms of potential additional territorial losses, and the long-term economic and societal impact of loosing vital resources and infrastructure.
Albert Eistein, the famous inventor of quantum physics, had an even more erudite take on the topic of persistence: “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”
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