Ukraine’s Spring Offensive a Likely Death Trap for U.S., NATO

Ukraine’s Spring Offensive a Likely Death Trap for U.S., NATO

Stephen BRYEN

Under US guidance, Ukraine is planning a major counteroffensive likely later this Spring when the fields and secondary roads that are not asphalted dry out. Right now most military vehicles cannot operate over open fields and have real difficulty on unpaved secondary roads.

According to leaked alleged Pentagon documents, Ukraine has assembled twelve brigades for the planned military push.

Nine of the twelve brigades are equipped with US and European armor and artillery and the three others are made up of older Russian-origin equipment, some of it modified by Ukraine.

According to the leaked documents, Ukraine can expect big gains from its offensive. But it would seem the reality is quite different. Even the Wall Street Journal, a Ukraine booster, has doubts.

Indeed, the documents themselves tell a different story, which helps explain the mad dash by the Biden administration to try and stop the dissemination of the leaked documents.

The planned Ukrainian late Spring offensive could be a death trap for the US, NATO and even America’s Asian allies.

A brigade is normally between 3,000 and 5,000 soldiers. Using the higher number, Ukraine is planning to commit 60,000 troops in the counteroffensive, focused on an effort to break Russia’s control over Black Sea ports other than Sevastopol.

However, it is likely Ukraine will launch some sort of simultaneous attack on Crimea and Sevastopol, if it can.

The offensive is largely the brainchild of US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland. She is the éminence grise in the Biden administration when it comes to Ukraine.

Nuland has not made any secret of her ambition for Ukraine to take back Crimea. Nuland, who is rigidly anti-Russian and anti-Putin, would like to see the Putin government collapse: achieving that in her view requires an absolute victory by Ukraine over Russia, meaning that Ukraine will retake every square meter of its lost land. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agrees.

The planned counteroffensive, despite US and NATO support, faces some significant obstacles. The nine US-NATO-equipped brigades have less armor than promised by NATO.

As can be seen, maintaining a gaggle of dissimilar equipment will not be easy and field repairs will be next to impossible. This will pose a significant challenge to the Ukrainians, who also will have no equipment reserves to replace what may be lost in battle.

The Pentagon papers also tell us that Ukraine’s air defenses are very badly depleted, either destroyed by the Russians or lacking ammunition. Even interceptors for the US Patriot air defense system delivered to Ukraine are currently unavailable unless replacement missiles are yanked from US and European operational units.

What this means is that the Russians have an advantage in air superiority which, in any offensive, they will use against the Ukrainian forces. The lack of ammunition is also a major problem to support the promised offensive, even to continue the war itself.

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