RT
Dmitry Trenin is a research professor at the Higher School of Economics and a lead research fellow at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations. He is also a member of the Russian International Affairs Council.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow is not just symbolic as his first foreign excursion after being re-elected to an unprecedented third term. The trip is particularly important because of the wider context in which it is taking place.
The global situation calls for a further upgrade in Sino-Russian relations to address the external challenges that both countries face.
The international system is going through a crisis on the scale of a world war.
It began nearly a decade ago when the Western-supported "Euromaidan" coup in Kiev, and Russia’s response by taking control of Crimea, prompted a prolonged US-Russian confrontation.
This was followed three years later by the US abruptly replacing its former China policy of ‘engage and hedge’ with a trade and technology war, resulting in a confrontation between Washington and Beijing.
Last year, Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine, seeking to eliminate the threat from what many in Moscow saw as the “land-based US-armed and -controlled aircraft carrier parked on Russia’s doorstep,” which Ukraine had become. With that, the Russo-American confrontation degenerated into a proxy war between the world’s two principal nuclear powers. Meantime, Washington further hardened its approach to Beijing, also seeking to organize its allies and partners in Asia and Europe against China.
Against that background, tensions around Taiwan have risen considerably. Thus, the possibility of Washington provoking an armed conflict over the island cannot be dismissed.
What is at stake here is not just the fate of Ukraine or the future of Taiwan. The issue is the existing world order itself and its current organizing principle – America’s global hegemony.
This status, roundly rejected by Moscow and Beijing, is now in question.
For a few years now, the US has been calling the present situation a ‘major power competition’ – which in the 20th century was the essence of both world wars. The Russians and Chinese, for their part, have been advocating since the 1990s for a transition from US-led unipolarity to a multipolar world order. This position is gaining support among various countries in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. In effect, the process of systemic change is already underway.
In response to this, the US has pursued a strategy of defending its global control at all costs. This is a strategy of prevention. The Americans have seen the rise of China, Russia’s unexpected recovery from the Soviet collapse, and Iran’s regional and nuclear ambitions as challenges that could not be tolerated.
The US has clearly understood that time is not on its side and has resolved to act while the balance of power is in its favor. Provoking Moscow into taking military action in Ukraine was designed to weaken and isolate Russia; stoking tensions in the Taiwan area has served the goal of pressuring China and strengthening anti-Beijing alliances in the Asia-Pacific.
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