Russia is very strong on up-close land-based military gear such as artillery. Russia is also extremely strong and competent in the arena of thermobaric bombs (non-radioactive fuel-air explosives) and nuclear warheads, including hypersonic missile delivery and ICBMs with multiple re-entry vehicles (that can perform evasive maneuvers). However, between these two ends of the spectrum of violence escalation, Griswold explains, Russia is not as well equipped with “measured” military responses from which to choose.
This means that if provoked with continued HIMARS-run attacks from Ukraine and USA “contractors,” Russia may leap from lower escalation battlefield responses (artillery and direct fire weapons) to thermobaric bombs and tactical battlefield nuclear warheads, Griswold warns.
Even worse, the United States appears to be deliberately provoking Russia into precisely such a response by providing key intelligence, satellite imagery and targeting solutions to HIMARS crews which are widely believed to be US soldiers out of uniform, operating as “contractors” in Ukraine. (HIMARS systems are highly complex and require many months of training to operate with proficiency.)
Additionally, both Griswold and this author believe that Russia is preparing a major offensive against Ukraine that would involve hundreds of thousands of Russian troops, combined with short and medium range missile strikes on key military and infrastructure targets inside Ukraine. This offensive — almost certain to take place before the spring thaw of Southern Ukraine territory — would likely topple Kiev and force the Zelensky regime into fleeing westward.
From there, NATO and Polish forces are likely to enter Western Ukraine under the guise of creating a kind of “safe zone” for whatever retreating Ukrainian forces still exist. This safe zone will almost certainly be used by Poland as a future claim against today’s Ukrainian territory (formerly Polish territory) while providing USA / NATO forces the opportunity to contrive scenarios of direct engagement with Russian forces as they move westward.
The end result is likely a direct war — and a full declaration of war — between the United States and Russia. This is a highly likely outcome in 2023.
Russia has said it will not use nuclear weapons except in cases it deems to be “existential” to Russia itself, yet with US State Department leaders essentially calling for the assassination of Putin and the total destruction of Russia itself, that threshold appears to have already been crossed.
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