Russia Prepares For Escalation

Russia will mobilize about 1.2% of her mobilizational potential

The Saker

So, after lots of speculation, we now know that the Kremlin has decided to mobilize about 300’000 soldiers from a total mobilizational potential of 25’000’000 soldiers.  That’s just a little over 1% of Russia’s mobilizational potential.  We are talking only about those soldiers who have an official status of “reserves” and all of them will have to undergo a special training before being sent to the Ukraine.

A few comments about this decision:

• It will take Russia a few months to gather and retrain (refresher courses) these forces and they will not be immediately available to protect the Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhie and Kherson regions during the upcoming referendum on to whether to join Russia or not.  The 3rd volunteer army corps is already deployed in the south and could greatly assist in this.
• Putin and Shoigu gave several reasons for this decision, including the very long line of contact, the direct involvement of NATO personnel who are now running the Ukronazi regime in Kiev and the threats by the West to dismantle Russia.
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• Shoigu indicated that the UAF lost about 50% of its personnel (over 100’000 soldiers out of a total potential of about 200’000).  He also added that most of the Ukrainian weapons systems, which were of Soviet origin, was mostly destroyed.  Russian KIAs are just under 6000 soldiers.
• Shoigu also clearly spelled out that “we are not so much fighting against the Ukraine but against NATO plus the united (collective) West“.
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• Shoigu also mentioned that all of the NATO satellite capabilities (70 military and 200+ civilian satellites) are used against Russia right now.
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• Finally, Shoigu added that NATO high precision weapons are deliberately used by NATO commanders to terrorize civilians.

In other words, Russia is preparing for an escalation of this war in the coming months.  She is basically augmenting her forces to a level which could deal with a major NATO escalation in the Ukraine (and elsewhere as not all mobilized forces would have to be combat units; deploying more C4ISR capabilities, logistics/supply forces or civil affairs and counter-terrorism units would also make sense).

The other big news of the day is, of course, that Russia will back and accept the outcome of the referendums in the four regions mentioned above.

Frankly, I have mixed feelings about this decision, but I understand that the Kremlin simply had no other option for the following reasons:

• This decision put away the thorny issue of “will the Russians stay or leave”.  Once the four regions vote to become part of Russia (which most opinion polls say will happen), they will forever retain that status.
• With all the rumors in the West about a limited use of nuclear forces, by making these four regions part of Russian proper, not just de facto but also de jure, Russia extends her nuclear umbrella over them (Russian military doctrine allows for the use of nukes if the territorial integrity and safety of Russia are under threat).  Here I will quote Putin:

They have even resorted to the nuclear blackmail. I am referring not only to the Western-encouraged shelling of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, which poses a threat of a nuclear disaster, but also to the statements made by some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO countries on the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction – nuclear weapons – against Russia.  I would like to remind those who make such statements regarding Russia that our country has different types of weapons as well, and some of them are more modern than the weapons NATO countries have. In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff.

Of course, we can expect the usual hysterics and doubling-down from the western ruling class which already promised never to recognize the outcome of any referendums.  Russia understands that and she has now taken the measures needed for a long conflict.

As for the Ukronazis, we can be sure that they will do everything in their power to try to disrupt the referendums.  Furthermore, they NATO commanders in Kiev fully understand that the Russian forces will only become more powerful over the next few months, so they will be in a hurry to score as many victories (including the murder of civilians and strikes against the civilian infrastructure) as possible.

I fully expect an increase in NATO+Ukronazi attacks in the coming weeks and months.  These attacks will only stop when a) the West runs out of resources and b) then their outcome will bring no tangible results whatsoever.

For the consolidated West, this was has been mostly about optics: PR, PSYOPs, propaganda, you name it.  With this latest Russian reaction, it will become even MORE crucial for the rulers of the consolidated West to convince their serfs that Russia is losing and the West winning.