Why would Iran want to incite Israel to strike Russian personnel or facilities in Syria?
To answer that question, we need to understand the evolution of Iranian and Russian interests in Syria, which have diverged over time. Today’s post-war situation in Syria is very different from just a few years ago when Assad was hanging by a thread for his survival. At that time, Russian and Iranian interests aligned in their shared desire to defeat ISIS and prop up the Syrian dictator.
Iran’s goal has always been to turn Syria into an Iranian vassal state in the image of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Iran is well aware of the changing dynamic, and it would like to advance its interests by creating a fissure between Israel and Russia. What better way than to provoke Israel to attack Iranian targets in Syria, purposely placed by Iran as close as possible to Russian bases and soldiers, hoping for an Israeli mistake.
Even with the Russian-Israeli deconfliction hotline, missteps can happen. Remember the Syrian downing of a Russian jet in 2018 after Israel flew jets near Latakia province, misidentifying a Russian plane as being Israeli. Israeli strikes near Latakia where Russians are stationed are not unprecedented, though they are rare to avoid accidentally striking Russian assets.
In addition to reinstating a dependent puppet, Russia’s goal in Syria was to expand and make permanent its naval base in Tartus and air base in Khmeimim in Latakia province.
According to Al-Monitor, the war zone’s satellite images of the expansion of the Russian air base in Khmeimim “would allow the base to support more regular deployments of larger and more heavily laden aircraft, including heavy airlifters and even potentially bombers,” changing the balance of power.
A researcher at the Jusoor Center for Studies and Development told Al-Monitor, “The expansion also carries a message to the new US administration – that there will be no immediate withdrawal of the Russians and that Syria is a major area of influence for them.”
Russia wants a stable Syria to permanently influence the Levant at little cost. It wants its air and sea base in Latakia province to become a permanent part of the Mediterranean landscape, projecting power and influence in the eastern Mediterranean. This comports with Putin’s desire to recreate an assertive Russia...
IRAN ALSO wants to permanently control Syria as a northern outpost in its grand plan to encircle Israel, creating a ring of immunity against Israeli threats to strike its nuclear weapons program facilities in the Iranian heartland. It also threatens Jordan from both the north in Syria and the east from Iraq with Iranian-controlled militias, as Jordan would be vulnerable and have to capitulate to Iranian influence.
Russia is now flying missions with Syrian jets to reassert Syrian authority over the whole country. This should not pose a problem unless Russia changes the rules of the game and limits Israel’s access to Iranian targets. That would be a game-changer that would benefit Iran and endanger the détente Israel and Russia now enjoy in Syria.
Expect Iran to continue to test Russian resolve and place an ever-growing number of weapons closer and closer to Russian bases, hoping for an Israeli mistake.
According to Amir, the Biden administration has lifted all US sanctions against Iran.
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