Will Iran Emerge As The Winner In Vienna Nuclear Talks?

Will Iran Emerge the Winner in Vienna Nuclear Talks?

Joseph Puder

On Monday, November 29, 2021 the five powers (Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia) and Iran assembled in Vienna, Austria to resume talks on returning to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) after a five-month gap. Iran broke those talks in June, 2021. In Vienna, President Joe Biden’s special envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, will not be sitting with the six negotiating delegations, but will be staying at a nearby hotel. He will be briefed on the talks by the diplomats from the five participating powers.

The states engaged in the negotiations have their own agendas. For Iran, their single objective is to lift the sanctions. From statements made by Iranian leaders, it is clear that they will object to dealing with issues of concern to the US, or the Israelis, who are not participants, but are facing an existential threat from a nuclear Iran. 

These issues include Iran’s development of ballistic missiles, and their nefarious regional activities. Iran demands assurances that the new JCPOA will bind future US administrations. It is not easy to predict whether the Iranian negotiating team will stick to its maximalist demands, or show some flexibility. It is clear, however, that Iran’s new president, Ebrahim Raisi, will seek a tough stand against the US. With the Chinese and Russian delegations at Iran’s side both in and out of the negotiation room, Tehran is unlikely to budge.

The first day of the negotiations is perhaps indicative of what is to come. The Iranian top negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, dictated the agenda, and the western powers dutifully complied. The topic was the lifting of the sanctions against Iran, and not returning the Islamic Republic to its nuclear commitments under the JCPOA. Another early piece of evidence of Iran’s dictating the agenda came from Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh. He stated that, “The US could receive a ticket for returning to the room if it agrees to the real lifting of sanctions.” The arrogance of the Iranians is apparent, and meant as an insult to the US.

The US seeks to bring Iran back to compliance, which is the return to the previous levels of uranium enrichment set at the 2015 nuclear deal. The Iranians are currently enriching uranium at a high level of 60%; a 90% uranium purity is needed for a weapons-grade level. It is clear that the Iranians used the almost six-month hiatus to upgrade its centrifuges, and increase the level of uranium enrichment in full violation of the JCPOA provisions.

The signals from Washington are that the Biden administration supposedly will not countenance Iran acquiring a nuclear bomb. The Biden administration has warned that the US has “other options,” but, the betting money should be on the US caving in. The Biden administration is more than likely to accept a deal that leaves the radical Ayatollahs in Tehran with a nuclear bomb on their shelf. The Iranians are putting their money on Biden’s unwillingness to engage in another war in the Middle East.

Jerusalem is naturally concerned about the Vienna talks, and Israel’s Foreign Minister Yair Lapid flew to London for talks with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and to Paris, where he met with President Macron. He made the case that Iran is back to Vienna for one reason, and that is to lift the sanctions. They need the money from sanctions relief to arm Hezbollah, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), to fund their global terrorist network, as well as to continue their race toward a nuclear bomb.

More...