Things To Come In 2022?

Around The World

Via Academy Securities,

In this month’s edition of Around the World with Academy Securities, our Geopolitical Intelligence Group (GIG) focuses on providing their perspective on the following geopolitical risks and potential surprises for 2022:

1. Will Russia Invade Ukraine in 2022?

2. Will there be a China | Taiwan Conflict in 2022?

3. Potential for Military Action against Iran in 2022.

4. Risk of a Major Cyber Attack in 2022.

In this report, we examine the potential geopolitical surprises/risks that we could see in 2022. We open with the high likelihood of a Russian incursion into Ukraine next year. Next, we review the tension between China and Taiwan and conclude that while an invasion in 2022 is unlikely, the risks grow over the next 3-5 years. We also revisit the Iranian nuclear discussions and while a return to the old JCPOA is unlikely, the chance of a U.S. attack on Iran is low next year. 

However, Israeli covert activities will continue against Iran’s nuclear facilities and there is a risk of a military strike if Iran gets close to a nuclear breakout. Finally, considering the high-profile ransomware attacks that occurred in 2021, we review the chances of a more significant cyber-attack on critical infrastructure in 2022. 

In addition to these areas, other risks our GIG sees in 2022 include the growth of Chinese influence in Central/South America (including in Nicaragua where the government there just flipped from supporting Taiwan to China) and a possible shift of support from Taiwan to China in Honduras as well. While the U.S. stands ready to “surge” economic aide to Honduras to encourage the new government there to maintain its ties with Taiwan, the fact that China is moving into the Western hemisphere and courting countries for support is concerning. Our GIG is also worried that the withdrawal from Afghanistan and a “fractured” NATO alliance could embolden our adversaries to act against U.S interests globally in 2022.

Front and Center: Will Russia Invade Ukraine in 2022?

In our last ATW and recent SITREP, we addressed the recent buildup of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border. Currently, there are ~100k troops near the Ukrainian border and the concern is that Putin could be in a position to invade by January 2022. While U.S. intelligence does not believe that Putin has made a final decision on whether to invade Ukraine, preparations are being made, including moving more Russian troops to the border and establishing the supply lines that could support a larger incursion into the country. 

In the December 7th virtual summit with President Putin, President Biden made it clear that there would be severe economic consequences if Russia were to move forward with an invasion. While it would require getting Germany to agree, there is a high likelihood that the Nord Stream 2 would not be granted final approvals if an invasion were to occur. With the high price of energy and a frigid winter heading to Europe, this would have both political and economic implications. In addition, the G7 (Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the U.S.) came out on December 13th with a statement that read, “Any use of force to change borders is strictly prohibited under international law…Russia should be in no doubt that further military aggression against Ukraine would have massive consequences and severe costs in response.”

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