Russia Limits Gas Supply To Europe:

Russia Shuts Off Gas Supply Through Yaman-Europe Pipeline To Europe

Bas van Geffen and Elwin de Groot, strategists at Rabobank

Indeed, European gas prices surged to another high after Mallnow station along the Yamal-Europe pipeline reported no Russian inflows for Tuesday.

Furthermore, Gazprom didn’t book any capacity to transport gas through the pipeline for Wednesday either, suggesting that gas is now flowing back to Russia. 

The Dutch 1 month ahead TTF benchmark rose 22% yesterday. The FT reported that prices are at such high premia over other regions that many ships carrying uncommitted LNG deliveries are now being rerouted to Europe instead. We recall that in the beginning of the gas crisis earlier this year it was the other way around. However, it remains to be seen how much these unexpected LNG shipments will alleviate the shortages in the continent.

The limited supply of Russian gas has led some European politicians to accuse Russia of deliberately withholding gas exports in order to pressure the region to approve Nord Stream 2 and due to the tensions over Ukraine. 

Gazprom maintains that it is meeting all of its obligations, and Russia denies that the limited supply is connected to these geopolitical issues. The minimal exports could be related to the freezing temperatures in Moscow, but the timing will certainly raise a few eyebrows.

The full halt of exports came on the day that President Putin and German Chancellor Scholtz spoke over these geopolitical issues, and could very well be a show of force. And separately, the Russian president warned NATO against moving troops further east. Putin threatened “to take adequate military-technical response measures and react harshly to unfriendly steps,” although he hopes a diplomatic solution can be reached.

These threats follow an earlier Russian demand that NATO withdraws its troops from former Soviet Union states, and while the US and Russia will discuss new security treaties next month, the US has already said that some proposals were “unacceptable”. Whether this week’s limited gas exports are related or not, these ongoing tensions will see traders brace for potential further supply disruptions through the winter.

Russia SHUTS-OFF Natural Gas to Europe

H Turner

Russian natural gas supplies to Germany via the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline stopped on Tuesday, and the gas flow then turned in the opposite direction.

This was reported by Reuters, which refers to data from the German gas network operator Gascade.

Western European deliveries have been declining since Saturday, leading to a rise in gas prices in Europe close to the maximum.

The volume of gas and the direction of its flow in the pipeline is normally governed by customer requirements.  But with European Union countries imposing sanctions upon Russia over the Ukraine situation, gas flows have been reduced -- and not stopped -- by Russia.

The price of a key futures gas contract delivered in January at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) virtual trading node in the Netherlands at the beginning of Tuesday's trading reached over 153 euros (approximately 3,860 CZK) per megawatt-hour (MWh). It showed a growth of more than four percent and was close to a record 155 euros, where it was in October.

"Russian supply disruptions come at the worst possible time. There is little wind in Europe, so electricity production from windmills is noticeably lagging behind. In addition, the weather is relatively cold, which of course intensifies energy demand," said Trinity Bank chief economist Lukáš Kovanda.

Word out of France this morning (Wednesday) is that the nation has fired-up its oil-burning electric plants; which is expected by many to make the environmentalists in France take to the streets over pollution.  Worse, about twenty-five percent (25%) of French nuclear power plants are presently offline due to maintenance and/or worker strikes.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Czech republic is warning its citizens of electrical blackouts.

Blackouts warning "Especially if frosts hit the EU in the coming weeks, blackouts or the need to cut off electricity supplies to businesses and households in series, region by region, can certainly not be ruled out," a Czech government spokesman said.

Gazprom is an important supplier of gas to many European countries and has a monopoly on the export of this strategically important raw material from Russia via pipelines. "Gazprom supplies gas according to customer requirements and in full compliance with current contractual obligations," the Russian company said on Monday.

Europe is experiencing a sharp rise in gas prices this year. In this context, Moscow has been accused of trying to force Germany and the European Union to put the Nord Stream 2 pipeline into operation quickly by restricting gas supplies. Russia rejects such allegations and points to factors that contribute significantly to rising gas prices. In addition to high demand, there is also an increase in the prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which Europe imports from non-European areas.

Russian President, Vladimir Putin, said Tuesday that everything happening right now in Europe is the fault of the EU and of the USA.  “What’s happening now, the tension developing in Europe, is their fault. At every step Russia was forced to somehow respond. At every step the situation grew increasingly worse … and degraded.” He says Russia must now make a decision re: NATO, US.