The Israel Defense Forces believes it significantly curbed Iran’s ability to transfer weapons and equipment through Syria over the past year through its airstrikes, and plans to continue doing so in 2022, The Times of Israel has learned.
The military hopes that these attacks will also drive a wedge between Syrian dictator Bashar Assad and Tehran.
At the same time, the military is pressing ahead with its preparations for a potential strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, amid ongoing talks in Vienna between Tehran and world powers on a return to the 2015 accord to halt the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.
While efforts to develop what Israeli officials refer to as a “credible military threat” against Iran’s program are continuing apace, and despite at-times bellicose rhetoric from Israeli politicians and IDF officers, it remains entirely unclear if Israel would indeed carry out such a strike even if Iran were on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon: Such an attack would almost surely prompt large-scale retaliation by Iran directly and through its proxies in the region, potentially plunging Israel into a massive, devastating multi-front war.
The decision on how to proceed will ultimately depend on a variety of factors, from the degree of American support for such an operation to the level of readiness of Israeli air defenses and bomb shelters — and, perhaps most critically, the extent to which the IDF believes its attack would actually set back Iran’s nuclear program. Under certain circumstances, the military believes that the cost of such an operation could outweigh its benefit to Israel’s national security.
In addition to preparing to counter the larger, regional threats, the IDF also expects to dedicate considerable resources in the coming year to countering Hamas in the Gaza Strip, despite the currently holding ceasefire with the terror group following May’s 11-day conflict; and to fighting terrorist activity in the West Bank, which has seen a significant rise in violence recently, of both Palestinian attacks against Israelis and Israeli settler attacks on Palestinians, according to IDF statistics.
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