3 On that day, when all the nations of the earth are gathered against her, I will make Jerusalem an immovable rock for all the nations. All who try to move it will injure themselves.
(Zechariah 12:3)
The recent string of events leading to greater clashes in Jerusalem and rocket fire from Gaza is part of the cycle that has led to conflicts in the past.
The recent Jerusalem escalation coincided with Ramadan and TikTok videos of Orthodox Jews being attacked. Numerous arrests were made, but that didn’t calm tensions. A massive far-right rally this past Thursday then led to further tensions, including early-Saturday morning rocket fire from the Gaza Strip.
It is important to understand that this timeline of events is similar to how tensions grew in 2014 as well as other cycles of violence that led to tensions in Gaza and Jerusalem – for example the 2017 installation of temporary metal detectors in the Old City of Jerusalem.
However, there is a central difference.
SO WHERE ARE we today? Hamas and Palestinian groups in Gaza have vowed solidarity with Jerusalem.
The dozens of rockets fired on Saturday morning – the most fired in months – are an escalation. The rocket fire is reminiscent of the increase in 2019 that led to some 2,600 rockets being fired at Israel in two years from 2018 to 2019. Around 1,000 of those were fired in 2018.
The linkage of Jerusalem to Gaza and the demands by Hamas to get involved not only in the tensions, but also the Palestinian elections, are a precursor to more tensions.
Hamas and Palestinian factions also want there to be Palestinian elections next month, with voting in east Jerusalem. Elections cannot be held if the Palestinians in Jerusalem can’t vote, the factions say. This could give them an excuse to heat up violence in Jerusalem as a way to cancel the elections or try to force Israel’s hand.
It is not yet clear what trajectory and shape this violence will take. The emergence of hundreds of far-right Israelis chanting anti-Arab slogans this past Thursday has led to a laser focus on Jerusalem. The police have tried and succeeded to reduce tensions.
But the month of Ramadan brings other considerations. Clashes at Kalandiya checkpoint on Friday evening represent the type of wave of clashes that can spread. In Israel’s favor, the country has learned how to prevent deaths as in past clashes.
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