The past year was very good security-wise. The low number of attacks and victims gave Israelis a relatively high feeling of security, and the intensive focus on coronavirus (and elections) pushed aside other issues that in normal times would have made headlines.
But the security challenges are here to stay. The new government, when it is formed, will not be able to avoid them, and top of the list is Iran. Behind the scenes, preparations are already underway for these marathon discussions, which take place mainly within the IDF, and specifically in the new unit formed last year to deal with Iran and strategic issues – the Strategy and Third-Circle Directorate.
The man heading this unit, Tal Kalman, is one of the most-cautious generals in the General Staff, and his statements here, in his first and exclusive interview, portray exactly the threats and possible responses – including military – but also hold a warning: to avoid dealing with these problems could pose a strategic threat for Israel.
Kalman says 2020 was a good year for the battle against Iran. "I don't want to call it a turning point year, but it was a year of major changes." It began with the killing of Qassem Suleimani, and continued with "a sequence of events that I mostly can't elaborate on, which made the balance positive, even very positive."
The man heading this unit, Tal Kalman, is one of the most-cautious generals in the General Staff, and his statements here, in his first and exclusive interview, portray exactly the threats and possible responses – including military – but also hold a warning: to avoid dealing with these problems could pose a strategic threat for Israel.
Kalman says 2020 was a good year for the battle against Iran. "I don't want to call it a turning point year, but it was a year of major changes." It began with the killing of Qassem Suleimani, and continued with "a sequence of events that I mostly can't elaborate on, which made the balance positive, even very positive."
"Iran is not a specific operational challenge, but a challenge one level above the military. It is a challenge for our national security doctrine. We had a tendency to be cynical in recent years, due to the idea that Iran is being pushed into the discussion for other things, but I really think this is about dealing with a country with the potential to become a regional power, headed by an extreme regime with a real goal of destroying Israel.
Dealing with Iran, he says, is based on four components. The first is the extreme regime, "that as long as it rules Iran, Israel will have a major challenge." The second is the nuclear issue. The third is the military strengthening "which is close to that of a regional power." And the fourth is the Iranian attempt to grow its regional influence "that in the long run uses areas with lack of governance and establishes capabilities there."
The challenge that all these pose for Israel is unprecedented. "The standard components of deterrence, defeat and defense are irrelevant for a country of 80 million people that are hundreds of miles away. This is a long-term strategic competition that calls on us to deploy a different kind of thinking than the one used for tackling a country on our border."
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