By The Numbers...

New WHO estimate puts coronavirus death rate at only 0.13%

Art Moore 

Lost in the reporting of the World Health Organization's new estimate that about 760 million people – more than 20 times the confirmed cases – have been infected by the coronavirus worldwide is the impact on the estimated survival rate.

If, indeed, 760 million have been infected at some point during the outbreak and the number of confirmed deaths is about 1 million, the infection fatality rate is only 0.13%.

That's a little more than one-tenth of 1%, which the WHO says is the rate for the seasonal flu.

The WHO's estimate in March of a death rate of 3.4% sparked panic worldwide, fueling the catastrophic lockdowns.

A rate of 3.4% is 26 times higher than a rate of 0.13%.

The Associated Press reported Monday that Dr. Michael Ryan, speaking to a special session of the WHO's COVID-19 board, said the figures vary from urban to rural areas.

Meanwhile, a new study by researchers at Wayne State University in Michigan found COVID-19's severity may be fading as the death rate falls.

In August, the New York Times found in an analysis of data that up to 90% of people testing positive carried barely any virus.

Times reporter Apoorva Mandavilli summarized her story on Twitter: "NEW: All these months into the pandemic, we may have been testing the wrong way. Data from some state labs suggest up to 90% (!!) of people who get a positive result are no longer contagious and don't need to isolate."

Last month, the Centers for Disease Control issued new estimates that showed people under 50 years infected by COVID-19 have nearly a 100% survival rate. It broke down to a 99.997% survival rate for 0-19; 99.98% for ages 20-49; 99.5% for 50-69; and 94.6% for those over 70.

Those who died of coronavirus, according to the CDC, had an average of 2.6 comorbidities, meaning more than two chronic diseases along with COVID-19. Overall, the CDC says, just 6% of the people counted as COVID-19 deaths died of COVID-19 alone.

The CDC's overall count shows a significant downward trend from a peak of 17,054 deaths on April 18

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California sees no link from school openings to virus spread

AMY TAXIN and ADAM BEAM, 

California has not seen a link between the reopening of K-12 schools for in-person learning and increased coronavirus transmission, the state's top public health official said Tuesday.

Dr. Mark Ghaly, the state's Health and Human Services secretary, told reporters that officials have been closely watching the return to classrooms in counties where it has been allowed. He said it can take time for trends to emerge, but so far, the results are encouraging.

“We have not seen a connection between increased transmission and school reopening or in-person learning,” Ghaly said. “We’re looking at the information to see if there is a connection, and so far we have not found one.”

California requires counties to report coronavirus levels and infection rates below certain thresholds before they can allow K-12 schools to broadly reopen for in-person instruction. On Tuesday, 32 of the state's 58 counties were deemed eligible to do so — up from 28 a week earlier.