Iran is outraged by the US decision to try to impose “snapback” sanctions. It has sought out support from China and so far that appears to be pushing back against the US plan to impose United Nations sanctions.
But Iran knows that Washington’s plan will not stop with attempts at snapback, as the US recently sought to interdict Iranian gas exports to Venezuela, and Washington has other plans in place to exert maximum pressure on Tehran.
The usual Tehran response to US threats or actions is to strike at sea or by land.
Iran has a weak navy and it doesn’t have a strong army either. What it does have is proxy groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. It also has ballistic and cruise missiles and drones that it has invested heavily in. At sea it has fast boats run by the IRGC and new cruise missiles and other weapons, such as mines.
Iran is preparing a list of options, as it has for the last two years, to continue to seek to show the US that it can strike at America’s assets in the region and at US allies. This threat is indicated by Iranian media reports about new missiles and even graphics in Iranian media showing the range of its various missiles and drones.
What do we know so far? Iran is pleased that China appears to be helping to stop the US from pushing snap-back sanctions. The sanctions were an element of the 2015 Iran Deal. Iran’s Press TV has celebrated Beijing’s support.
Iran is seeking a long-term economic deal with Beijing at the same time while the Trump administration has had public feuds with China in the last year over Covid-19 and also a trade war. Recently CNN reported a Chinese submarines using an underground facility as part of China’s increased military activity and naval power. Iran is pleased that it may have found an ally that will eventually stand up to Washington.
In the meantime though, Iran will look to its wheelhouse for how to respond.
The Iranian playbook comes down to two choices. The first choice is for Esmail Ghaani, the man who replaced IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani, to encourage attacks on the US and allies by proxies. Ghaani has been to Iraq recently and to Syria. But he is not well loved in Iraq. He does not know the ground and is not respected by the militias. Coordination with Hezbollah and the Houthis may be slightly less than before.
Nevertheless, Iraqi-based pro-Iranian militias have been firing rockets at the US embassy, US forces near Baghdad airport and US forces at Camp Taji almost daily. Iraq’s Prime Minister was in Washington this week so the rockets were designed to show him who is boss of Iraq. Iran is boss, that was the message.
Iran can order more rocket strikes and attacks on US supply convoys. It has carried out some 30 rocket attacks in the last six months and six attacks on supply convoys. It could also use the Houthis to conduct more attacks on Riyadh, but Saudi Arabia is well prepared for this.
Iran also knows that US Central Command will retaliate if there are US casualties in Iraq. The US already carried out airstrikes in December and March against Iranian-backed groups. This is the calculation Iran must look at.
No comments:
Post a Comment