Back on July 14 when a wave of new covid cases was sweeping the sunbelt states prompting many to speculate if a new round of shutdowns was imminent, we took the other side of the argument and said that the pandemic peak had hit, and that in Arizona - an early recent outbreak state, "the worst was over for the COVID breakout." We were right, and as Bank of America writes today, Arizona has seen a 66% decline since its peak on July 14th, while the US excl. the four major recent outbreak states (AZ, CA, FL, TX) experiencing a 13% decline since the peak on July 30th.
There's more: as BofA also points out, "we continue to see clear signs the Coronavirus is rolling over in the US as the number of people hospitalized due to COVID-19 declines at a rapid pace of about one percent a day (26% in 23 days)."
Extrapolating, this rate of decline means that there will be zero covid-related hospitalizations around the Nov 3 election day, a feat that if marketed properly, could mean the differnce for Trump between victory and defeat.
This week saw front page headlines that official COVID-19 statistics can no longer be trusted due to decreasing testing volumes. We agree but are wondering why there were no such headlines when daily new cases were rising due to more testing.
This is why we rely on statistics for the number of people hospitalized due to COVID-19. Drawback is that hospitalizations are lagged indicators of infections. Let's assume for this discussion that the lag is three weeks. The recent peak number of hospitalized on July 24th suggests peak daily new COVID-19 infections in the US around Independence Day (July 4th).
But daily new COVID-19 cases continued to rise sharply in July, which dominated the headlines. It looks like daily new cases and the number of people hospitalized are virtually coincident, as the peaks for both were reached around the same time. This actually makes sense as probably the primary driver of testing is someone going to the hospital with COVID-19 symptoms. We imagine that person gets tested along with the immediate family, friends and colleagues. Because COVID-19 statistics are very persistent, it seems likely that the numbers continue to roll over.
There is little doubt that all these negative COVID-19 related headlines have weighed on consumer, business and investor confidence. As this now reverses we remain positioned for a re-steepening Treasury curve by expecting bull flattening IG corporate spread curves, compression along the quality curve and outperformance of the most COVID-19 negatively impacted names. Heavy new issuance remains a headwind, but it is mitigated by strong inflows. Next week should be busy and then the window closes in the two weeks before Labor Day.
It wasn't just Bank of America that had good news: in its state-level coronavirus tracker, Goldman confirmed that the number of new confirmed coronavirus cases continues to decline in the vast majority of states, yet the bank urged some caution, noting that "although the nationwide downward trajectory is encouraging, state government officials may wait until case levels decline further before moving forward with additional reopening policies."
Ironically, there is just one state where there is a tangible number of new cases - the one which was among the first to permit protests (and riots) in late May and early June: as Goldman notes, "Cases are on the rise in the most populous state of California, which has faced technical difficulties in reporting accurate daily case counts."
Do you remember five months ago?
Normally I wouldn’t ask, but the world is moving incredibly fast these days.
Do you remember that it was predicted that covid19 would kill literally millions of people?
Do you remember that hospitals were going to be over-run with patients and our struggling medical infrastructure was going to collapse under their weight?
Do you remember that locking down global society was the only way to prevent this disaster? That we had to do it, regardless of how much damage it did to the livelihoods and security of countless millions of people?
Final question – do you know how many people in the United Kingdom officially died with (not of) the coronavirus yesterday?
It’s 12.
You probably didn’t hear about that, because sometime in the last five weeks or so the media completely stopped using the word “deaths”, and started talking only about “cases”.
A “case” is anyone who tests positive for Sars-Cov-2, using the notoriously unreliable PCR tests which produce huge numbers of false positives.
Even supposing the positive test is real, the vast majority of “cases” are asymptomatic. Between false positives, unreliable tests and asymptomatic infection, a “case” count for sars-cov-2 is borderline meaningless.
Let’s say there are symptoms AND a positive test, and assume they’re not just a false positive who has a cold or the flu. Well, even the vast majority of the “symptomatic cases” will only ever be mildly ill. In fact of the 6 million active cases in the world, only 1% are considered severely ill. The majority of them will survive.
The CDC estimates the infection fatality ratio of Sars-Cov-2 to be about 0.26%. A number perfectly in line with severe flu seasons. Virtually every country in Europe is now reporting average, or even below average, mortality.
Broadly speaking, the vast majority of the world is, and will likely remain, absolutely fine.
But things aren’t going back to normal, are they?
In fact, they are getting worse.
The governments have got their foot in the door, and they have no intention of moving it.
Masks are now mandatory in the UK, and Australia, and New Zealand, and Germany and France. And many others. The Democrat’s nominee for President, Joe Biden, has said they should be mandatory in the US as well.
There’s talk of “local lockdown” in Birmingham, because of a “sudden increase in cases”, but we get no details on the numbers are, or if that’s translating into any kind illness, let alone deaths.
The same for Oldham, which is on the brink of a “catastrophic lockdown” thanks to its infection rate of 83 people per 100,000. (Oldham has a population of about 250,000, so that’s about 200 cases.)
Actually, over the last week the UK’s covid death count has reduced by over 5000, thanks to a review which removed duplicates and mistakes (which OffG predicted would happen months ago). The case count is bloated by at least 30,000 duplicates too.
In New Zealand, the patron saint of coronavirus Jacinda Ardern has just postponed next months general election. It’s only a month, for now. But what if there’s a “second wave” in October and they have to postpone it again? Regardless, the precedent is set.
New Zealand has had 1600 cases, total, in 5 months. They haven’t had a reported death since May. But their country is on lockdown and their democracy on hold.
Oh, and they’re shipping positive tests (and their families) off to “quarantine centres”, where if you refuse to be tested, you will be detained indefinitely.
Australia is locking down cities, even imposing curfews, based on 450 deaths.
Every day there are more and more articles discussing the need for mandatory vaccination, or something even worse.
And everywhere the language is changing. “The New Normal” was about beating Covid19, but now it’s about “covid19 and future pandemics”, or the “other colossal challenges facing humanity”….which can mean literally anything they want it to mean.
All this is based on the ever-increasing number of cases, without any reference to the fact deaths are falling.
All the way through those of us calling for a measured, proportional response were abused or ignored. The numbers have shown we were right, but that doesn’t matter now. They scared people into giving them the power, then they set the precedent for using that power, and there’s no reason to think they will ever stop.
It used to be about “deaths”, now it’s about “cases”. It used to be about coronavirus, next time it will be about something else.
Melbourne Authorities To Use Surveillance Drones To Catch People Not Wearing Masks
Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,
Authorities in Melbourne, Australia will use high-tech surveillance drones to catch people outside not wearing masks as well as to scan for vehicles that are in violation of curfew by being more than 5km from home.
“High powered drones will be used to find people not wearing masks and cars too far from home,” according to a 7News Melbourne news report.
The drones will also be used to ensure skate parks and playgrounds remain empty.
The surveillance devices can be flown up to a distance of 7km and produce images so clear they can “read a vehicle’s number plate from 500 meters away.”
Privacy advocates are concerned that there is no sunset clause on the use of such technology and the drones could continue to be used to spy on citizens after the pandemic ends.
7News Melbourne spoke to two residents who said they weren’t worried because they were behaving and had “nothing to hide.”
The measures are just the latest example of what represents one of the most draconian coronavirus lockdowns in the developed world after the state of Victoria announced a “state of disaster” in response to an uptick in COVID-19 cases.
There have been several instances of police physically tackling people for not adhering to mask wearing rules, including one incident when a woman was placed in a chokehold by a male police officer.
Police have also been given the power to enter people’s homes without a warrant and perform quarantine spot checks.
Drivers are also being asked to show their papers at highway checkpoints simply to get to work.
Anyone caught outside without a mask or violating the 8pm-5am curfew also risks being made to pay a massive fine.
As the post below illustrates, the rules are also being enforced by Australian Defence Force troops patrolling parks and other outdoor areas.
Police also fined a couple for allowing their child to play further than 5km from their home, while also executing a search warrant against and seizing computers belonging to two men who were planning an anti-lockdown protest.
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