Joseph Curl
So for me, the numbers being bandied around just don’t make any sense.
The latest coronavirus, COVID-19, is bad, but 150 million Americans infected? That is what Congress’ in-house doctor told Capitol Hill staffers at a close-door meeting last week.
A recent projection from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had even more alarming numbers.
Worst-case scenario, COVID-19 could infect between up to 214 million people over a period of more than a year — and kill as many as 1.7 million Americans.
The New York Times used an even more dire model: 2.1 million dead.
Let’s back up a second. China has a population of 1,437,722,468 as of Tuesday, based on Worldometerelaboration of the latest United Nations data.
COVID-19 was born there, with the first case being diagnosed on Dec. 1.
On Tuesday, there were 81,054 confirmed cases of the virus, according to Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering.
Of those, 68,798 recovered, while 3,230 people died (the remainder were still active cases).
So that means the infection rate in China was just .006%. How, then, are the “experts” forecasting that well more than 50% of the 320 million people in America — where people already wash their hands incessantly and use Purell nonstop — will be infected?
Again, look at the numbers. The virus pounded China from December through the third week of February — more than 10 weeks in all — before it leveled off (if you can believe the communist leaders’ claim).
In the Hubei province, just more than 11% of the nearly 60 million residents were infected. And that was ground zero.
The spread of COVID-19 in China began leveling off a week before February ended. It topped 80,000 on March 1, but 14 days later it was still less than 81,000. The curve had flattened.
But let’s go to Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institutes of Health’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, for the final word.
“I think we really need to be careful with those kinds of predictions, because that’s based on a model,” Dr. Fauci said at a congressional hearing last week. “All models are as good as the assumptions that you put into the model … it’s unpredictable. So, testing now is not going to tell me how many cases you are going to have. What will tell you what you’re going to have will be how you respond to it with containment and mitigation,” he said.
Dr. Fauci also said the breathless media tends to report on the higher end of ranges predicted by models. “Remember the model during the Ebola outbreak said you could have as many as a million [cases]. We didn’t have a million,” he said.
No, instead, two people died in the United States from Ebola in 2014. Both contracted the disease overseas. Two more contracted the disease in the United States — both survived.
On Tuesday, the United States had 5,702 confirmed cases of COVID-19, with 94 deaths (48 of those in Washington state alone). The numbers will undoubtedly go up — likely by a lot.
But President Trump has taken swift action to cut off the influx of travelers from countries teeming with infection and on Monday laid out stringent new guidelines to halt the upward curve.
Americans appear to be taking the directives seriously. So, time will tell if it all works.
But 150 million infected? A million dead? Right now, those numbers just don’t seem to add up.
Let’s hope they never do.
BREAKING: Italian Health Ministry Confirms ONLY TWELVE or 3% of Coronavirus Fatalities in Study Did Not Have Other Serious Health Complications
Joe Hoft
Since early March Italy became the epicenter of of the coronavirus epidemic.
Rome, 13 Mar 19:12 – (Agenzia Nova) – There may be only two people who died from coronavirus in Italy, who did not present other pathologies. This is what emerges from the medical records examined so far by the Higher Institute of Health, according to what was reported by the President of the Institute, Silvio Brusaferro, during the press conference held today at the Civil Protection in Rome. “Positive deceased patients have an average of over 80 years – 80.3 to be exact – and are essentially predominantly male,” said Brusaferro. “Women are 25.8 percent. The average age of the deceased is significantly higher than the other positive ones. The age groups over 70, with a peak between 80 and 89 years. The majority of these people are carriers of chronic diseases. Only two people were not presently carriers of diseases “, but even in these two cases, the examination of the files is not concluded and therefore, causes of death different from Covid-19 could emerge. The president of the ISS has specified that “little more than a hundred medical records” have so far come from hospitals throughout Italy.
The sick are at a higher risk similar to the flu. Current global data shows that if you have no pre-existing conditions, your fatality rate if you contract the coronavirus is .9% (and what proportion of these cases are the elderly).
BREAKING: Italian Health Ministry Confirms ONLY TWELVE or 3% of Coronavirus Fatalities in Study Did Not Have Other Serious Health Complications
Joe Hoft
Since early March Italy became the epicenter of of the coronavirus epidemic.
As of Wednesday morning there have been 31,506 confirmed cases of coronavirus in Italy and 2,503 deaths.
But new data from the Italian government shows that the people dying from the coronavirus are either the elderly or have other complications.
Today’s news out of Italy confirms this is the case.
50% of those who died from coronavirus had THREE DIFFERENT SERIOUS HEALTH CONDITIONS and the average per person had 2.7 serious health conditions.
Only 12 coronavirus fatalities had NO previous health concerns before coming down with the coronavirus.
Via Agenzia Nova from March 18:
(rough translation)
Rome, 18 Mar 09:29 – (Agenzia Nova) – Only 12 deaths caused by coronavirus have been ascertained so far. The data, however, emerges from the analysis of just 355 medical records, out of 2,003 received by the Higher Institute of Health (ISS). All the other 343 patients who fell victim to the epidemic, according to the ISS, had other serious diseases, which caused their death. Almost 50 percent of the deceased had 3 previous pathologies, and the average of the 343 deaths from secondary causes is 2.7 pathologies per person. The 12 deceased patients, equal to 3.38 per cent of the sample examined, did not present any previous pathology , which means that their death was caused, precisely, by Covid-19.
Among the other victims, 84, equal to 23.7 percent of the sample, had 1 pathology; 90 patients, equal to 25.4 percent of the sample, had 2; and 169, equal to 47.6 percent, had 3 or more pathologies. Respiratory failure is the most common complication observed. The ISS, in fact, found the disease in 97.2 percent of cases; the second cause is acute kidney damage, in 27.8 percent of cases; followed by acute myocardial injury, with 10.8 percent; and from superinfection, with 10.2 percent.
Rome, 13 Mar 19:12 – (Agenzia Nova) – There may be only two people who died from coronavirus in Italy, who did not present other pathologies. This is what emerges from the medical records examined so far by the Higher Institute of Health, according to what was reported by the President of the Institute, Silvio Brusaferro, during the press conference held today at the Civil Protection in Rome. “Positive deceased patients have an average of over 80 years – 80.3 to be exact – and are essentially predominantly male,” said Brusaferro. “Women are 25.8 percent. The average age of the deceased is significantly higher than the other positive ones. The age groups over 70, with a peak between 80 and 89 years. The majority of these people are carriers of chronic diseases. Only two people were not presently carriers of diseases “, but even in these two cases, the examination of the files is not concluded and therefore, causes of death different from Covid-19 could emerge. The president of the ISS has specified that “little more than a hundred medical records” have so far come from hospitals throughout Italy.
The sick are at a higher risk similar to the flu. Current global data shows that if you have no pre-existing conditions, your fatality rate if you contract the coronavirus is .9% (and what proportion of these cases are the elderly).
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