California: 10% Chance Of 3rd Quake Stronger Than 7.0 Next Week

California experts say there is a 10% chance of a 3rd quake reaching 7.0 or higher in the next week

• Ridgecrest sits about 10 miles from the epicenters of both tremors that hit 32 hours apart Thursday and Friday
• Following Friday's event, Caltech seismologist Lucy Jones warned there is a 10 percent chance of another magnitude 7.0 or higher quake in the next week
• 'The fault is growing,' Jones explained, adding that it is now 25 to 30 miles long 
• Over the next week, Southern California has only a 27 percent chance of experiencing a third earthquake greater than magnitude 6, but a 96 percent chance of going through a tremor of magnitude 5 or higher 
• USGS mapped out approximately 600 quakes that hit the area just hours north of Los Angeles on Saturday
• Most registered between the 2 and 3.5 magnitude range, but there were plenty that got as high as 4.5. 
• The first earthquake measuring at magnitude 6.4 shook the city on Thursday morning 
• It was determined to be a foreshock to an even larger 7.1 temblor, Southern California's largest in 20 years
• Compared to the first shock, the second was 11 times stronger, five times bigger and lasted longer 
• There have been more than 1,700 aftershocks recorded in the area since the first quake on Thursday morning
• There has been an average of one aftershock every minute since Friday's quake in the southern part of the state, according to the United States Geological Survey website 

California earthquake experts have indicated that there is a 10 percent chance of another magnitude 7.0 or higher quake hitting the same area in the southern part of the state that was already hit with two intense quakes.  

Following Friday's event, Caltech seismologist Lucy Jones warned there is a 10 percent chance of another magnitude 7.0 or higher quake in the next week. 

'The fault is growing,' Jones explained to the Los Angeles Times, adding that it is now 25 to 30 miles long. 

Over the next week, Southern California has only a 27 percent chance of experiencing a third earthquake greater than magnitude 6, but a 96 percent chance of going through a tremor of magnitude 5 or higher.

Those precise probabilities were generated by scientists at the United States Geological Survey (USGS), using models based on longstanding principles of seismic behavior and decades of data on aftershocks from earthquakes.

But the same predictive power does not extend to forecasting when and where earthquakes will strike in the first place, experts acknowledge.

'Even if it's a theoretical possibility, it may be a practical impossibility,' said Andrew Michael, a California-based geophysicist at the USGS.

The USGS mapped out approximately 600 quakes that hit the area just hours north of Los Angeles on Saturday. Most registered between the 2 and 3.5 magnitude range, but there were plenty that got as high as 4.5.   

With the possibility of aftershocks and temperatures forecast to reach 100 degrees (38 Celsius) over the next several days, officials were taking precautions.

The California National Guard was sending 200 troops, logistical support and aircraft, Maj. Gen. David Baldwin said. The Pentagon had been notified, and the entire California Military Department was put on alert, he said.

Egill Hauksson, another Caltech seismologist, said later in the day that scientists believe the continuing sequence could produce more than 30,000 quakes of magnitude 1 or greater over six months. 

He said the probability of a magnitude 7 over the next week is about three percent, but one or two magnitude 6 quakes are expected.

Looting has been reported in Ridgecrest following the worst of the two massive earthquakes that shook Southern California on Thursday and Friday. 

Ridgecrest, which sits about 10 miles from the epicenters of both tremors, is just beginning to survey the extent of the damage from the quakes that cracked buildings, ignited fires and left thousands without power. 

Mayor Peggy Breeden told KTLA that 'bad people' have been adding to the difficult situation by stealing from businesses where merchandise was rattled off the shelves and scattered all over the floor.   

The first earthquake measuring at magnitude 6.4 shook the city on Thursday morning. It was determined to be a foreshock to an even larger 7.1 temblor that came 32 hours later on Friday night. 

And the earth under Southern California has not stopped rumbling ever since the first shake on Thursday, with more than 1,400 aftershocks recorded shortly afterwards, scientists say.

There has been an average of one aftershock every minute since Friday's quake in the southern part of the state, according to the United States Geological Survey website. Geophysicist John Bellini said that more than 4,700 quakes have been recorded since Thursday. 

During a press conference Saturday morning, Kern County Fire Chief David Witt said there are no known fatalities from the earthquake but admitted that little is known about the destruction at this point.  

'We do feel like there is damage, but we don't know the extent of it yet,' Witt told reporters. 'Nobody was trapped, no major collapses that we know of, but we are out there searching.' 

He said damage evaluation is just picking up speed because 'it's hard to gather intel in darkness'.  

Firefighters were seen battling flames at a mobile home park in Ridgecrest overnight after an electrical fire broke out.  

Shocking footage shows thousands of dead bees after 7.1 magnitude earthquake struck California

• Khalil Underwood shared a shocking video that showed thousands of dead bees after the 7.1 magnitude earthquake that struck California on Friday 
• Footage shows the some insects still alive, buzzing around frantically
• This was the second earthquake that struck the state in as many days - it's believed to be the strongest to hit the area in two decades
• Four building reportedly caught fire in Ridgecrest and while there were minor injuries, thankfully there were no fatalities 
• The earthquake caused NBA summer league games to be cancelled and theme park rides to be evacuated
• Scientists have previously noted that animals and insects act strangely in the lead up to an earthquake, but do not know why 

The AFTERMATH of California's Back-to-Back Earthquakes

Since this region is currently experiencing two earthquake sequences at the same time (the one caused by the 6.4 quake on the Fourth of July and the one caused by the 7.1 shake on July 5), residents should prepare for a boatload of aftershocks less than 6.0 magnitude.

The U.S. Geological Survey predicts a greater than 99% chance for a moderate earthquake (magnitude 5.0) within the next week. They also expect the region to experience 360 to 660 minor aftershocks (around magnitude 3.0) in the same amount of time. (source)

Dr. Lucy Jones, a seismologist for the California Institute of Technology (CalTech), says that the aftershocks of this quakecould go on for years.

People throughout Southern California have been warned to prepare for the possibility of even more strong earthquakes. Go here to learn how to survive an earthquake and check out my book, Be Ready for Anything to get prepared for a lengthy aftermath.

Seismologists say the “Big One” would be 125 times stronger than Thursday’s earthquake and 44 times stronger than the 1994 Northridge earthquake, which killed 57 people and caused $49 billion in economic losses. (source)

Of course that figure is just an estimate and it is based on a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake.

Theoretically, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake would release 7,943 times as much energy as the Ridgecraft earthquake, and that would easily be the most destructive natural disaster that we have ever seen in all of U.S. history up to this point.

And please don’t think that such a quake can’t happen.  Scientists admit that the San Andreas fault has the potential to “move for many feet almost instantaneously”… (source)

So, no, as big as it was, this was NOT “The Big One” that Californians have been dreading for decades. It wasn’t even on the same fault line as the one causing the most concern.