The Trump administration is looking to “build international consensus” against Iran following attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman. But what does that actually mean? And to what end is it used?
"The focus for myself and Ambassador Bolton and Secretary Pompeo is to build international consensus to this international problem," acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan told reporters outside the Pentagon on Friday.
Shanahan went on to say that the Pentagon would contribute to this effort by sharing intelligence with allies, as it did Friday when it released a video it claims shows Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) removing an undetonated mine from the hull of one of two tankers attacked on Thursday.
For National Security Advisor John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, consensus-building will likely take a different shape. Pompeo has already blamed Iran for the attack, citing non-specific “intelligence” and Tehran’s alleged history of “unprovoked attacks” in the region. The State Secretary has jetted off in search of consensus before; taking a tour of the Middle East at the beginning of the year to unite the US’ Arab allies against Iran.
Bolton has been clamoring for war with Iran for over a decade, advocating pre-emptive strikes on the Islamic Republic since 2008. Shaping consensus for him will likely entail more beating of the war drums on the international stage.
Rallying allies
Why build consensus at all? There are two reasons: moral and material.
The US paints itself not as the “world police” but as a moral beacon, an exemplar for “democracies” to aspire to and follow, so the more allies sign on to its cause the more legitimate it looks.
On a more practical level, going against Tehran is not an endeavor the US can do alone. Iran has a population of nearly 90 million people, the world’s 14th-most powerful military, a navy and array of land-to-sea missiles capable of inflicting devastating losses on American ships in the Persian Gulf, and the ability to close off the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil transits.
Put simply, the US needs allies on its side, believing its story and fighting its fight, either diplomatically or militarily.
The invasion of Iraq in 2003...Washington spent months beforehand hammering home the line that Saddam Hussein was harboring weapons of mass destruction, and was working with Al-Qaeda terrorists. Neither statement was true, and skepticism abounded, but the message was repeated and 39 allies eventually joined the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ to aid the US war effort.
Incidentally, John Bolton was a member of the Bush administration at the time, serving as undersecretary of state for arms control and international security affairs while Bush delivered his “Axis of Evil” speech to the world.
If history has one abiding lesson to offer here, it’s to always be wary of any talk of consensus from Washington. With storm clouds gathering over the Gulf of Oman, Shanahan’s statement could possibly be viewed as a rare telegraphing of intent, and a sign to watch out for the next “axis of evil” speech.
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