Large Seismic Event Predicted Off New Zealand's North Island

Large seismic event similar to what preceded the 2011 Japanese quake and tsunami underway off New Zealand's North Island - Ongoing earthquake swarm - Officials urge Kiwis to get prepared

A swarm of earthquakes has been triggered off the North Island’s east coast by a large seismic event similar to what preceded the 2011 Japanese quake and tsunami. GNS Science has confirmed one of the largest “slow-slips” ever observed in New Zealand is currently underway off the coast of Gisborne in the Hikurangi subduction zone.

This slow-slip began last week and so far scientists have recorded “up to 3cm of eastward displacement,” said Wallace. 

“This is caused by up to 10-15cm of movement on the Hikurangi plate boundary offshore of Gisborne.” 

While these events are fairly common, happening every one or two years, this slow-slip is on track to be “as large at the previous slow-slip” recorded off Gisborne in 2010.

Since Monday, 85 quakes have been recorded in the area.

There have also recently been multiple small earthquakes recorded around the North Island, including in the north and off the coast of Whakatane. But GNS Science say it is hard to directly tie those to this slow-slip.

International seismologists have found the 2011 Japanese earthquake was preceded by a slow-slip earthquake that lasted a month, but the predictive value of the events remain unclear.

Scientists are studying the slow-slips off Gisborne through instruments on the seafloor off Poverty Bay to understand more about the movements and subduction zone processes.

This could help with earthquake forecasting in the future.

On Wednesday, Kiwis were urged to prepare for a large M8.9 earthquake off the coast of Gisborne which experts believe is inevitable and could happen within our lifetime.

“We know a large earthquake and tsunami is something we will face in our lifetime, or that of our children and grandchildren. The reality is it isn’t a matter of if, but when.“

The Hikurangi subduction zone is New Zealand’s “largest and most active fault”. It is found just off New Zealand’s east coast, running from Gisborne to the top of the South Island, and is where the Pacific plate is subducting beneath the Indo-Australian plate.

“New Zealand sits on a subduction zone just like Japan, and people should be prepared for the next large earthquake and tsunami,” said a statement from East Coast LAB.