Ousting Maduro Without Violence Is Unlikely In Venezuela

Ousting Maduro without violence is unlikely in Venezuela

The pressure is building on Nicolás Maduro.

A host of European countries recognized Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s president on Monday, after Maduro predictably failed to meet their eight-day deadline to schedule free and fair elections. President Donald Trump and congressional leaders say all options are on the table. And recently announced U.S. oil sanctions will begin to take effect in the coming weeks as the international community attempts to send humanitarian aid to Venezuelans without Maduro’s assistance.

But Maduro’s past attempts to consolidate power, combined with an unprecedented international response to recognize a leader who does not control the country’s military, institutions or a portion of territory, does not have a direct correlation with other U.S.-backed efforts in Latin America and elsewhere. Experts who are both skeptical and supportive of the decision to recognize Guaidó’s government and a warp-speed time frame to hold elections in a matter of weeks say violence beyond the sporadic street clashes over the past few weeks is likely, whether or not foreign troops enter the country.

“I don’t see Maduro leaving peacefully,” said Eric Farnsworth, a former State Department official who is now a vice president of the Council of the Americas and a supporter of the decision to recognize Guaidó. “He’s not going to wake up with an epiphany, he’s going to have to be forced out. If it happens, it’s going to be by Venezuelans... members of the security forces or members of his own coalition, if they see him as ineffective.”

Farnsworth said the only scenario where Maduro is pressured to leave without violence involves Russia and China becoming convinced that Maduro’s potential successor would be better for them than the status quo and working with the international community on a transition plan. Russia and China continue to recognize Maduro, and Russia has sent aircraft to Venezuela amid reports that Maduro is looking to remove gold reserves from the country.

Dany Bahar, a Venezuelan economist and Brookings Institute fellow, said the ongoing humanitarian crisis is the variable that makes Maduro vulnerable compared to other autocratic rulers who maintained power for decades. 

“If the humanitarian crisis keeps going it’s not going to stabilize, it’s only going to get worse,” Bahar said. “Even if Maduro manages to stay in power it’s going to be very challenging. Even if he has all the power and all the weapons, he’s going to be in a very unstable environment.”